Brazil
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says grain markets rallied on Monday adding risk premium on the war headlines but also positioning ahead of the May WASDE and China summit.
Cattle futures posted lower weekly closes and Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.
Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week but rallied on Friday adding in war premium. Plus, soybeans led gains on talk of China buying soybeans.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade hit record levels on Thursday and helped pull futures higher Friday. Grains are trying to recover from the big wash out with crude oil this week.
U.S. ending stocks remain unchanged month-over-month while USDA adjusts global production estimates.
Soybeans started off slightly lower on corrective selling but quickly found buying interest says Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag.
Soybeans were lower by 3 to 4 cents on Friday on profit taking heading into the holiday according to Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions but ended higher for the week.
Beyond China’s political goodwill purchases and Brazil’s soybean showdown, the U.S. is eyeing a 30% surge in domestic processing. To stay resilient, farmers are advised to focus on profit margins rather than volume.
Grains markets ended higher across the complex, driven mostly by money flow according to Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says soybeans were also getting a push from South American weather, with wheat adding risk premium on U.S. weather concerns.
Soybeans and soybean oil saw a higher day on Tuesday driven by hopes President Trump would make a biofuels policy announcement regarding 45Z or the RVO proposal while speaking in Iowa after the market close says Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing.
Soybeans and bean oil were slightly higher on Tuesday morning with hopes President Trump may make an announcement or at least talk positive about the 45Z program according to Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity.
China has ramped up its orders for Brazilian cargoes of soybeans.
Soybeans continued to rally on Thursday. Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says this isn’t just short covering.
Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says hot, dry weather is expected in much of Argentina and Southern Brazil in the next 10 days and it is hitting at the critical pod filling stage for some of the soybean crop.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with corn and soybean prices plunging at the beginning of the week in response to the bearish USDA report, the lower price levels stimulated end user buying.
Brazil has officially surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer. With U.S. production down 3.9%, analysts point to Brazil’s feed capacity and rising imports as key drivers of this historic market shift.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says the soybean market faded after hitting chart resistance but also seemed disappointed with the lack of confirmed China export business. The grain complex also saw report positioning.
The grain markets were mixed early Thursday squaring ahead of the USDA reports. DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says that could keep the markets quiet the next few sessions.
While U.S. beef production fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, Brazil’s beef production surprisingly increased. Rabobank, for example, expected a decline, but now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent in Brazil.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans. Traders are also short in the wheat market, which just came off of contract lows in SRW futures.
Grain markets are all higher to start the week. Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says some of the strength is tied to short covering after lower weekly closes in corn, soybeans and wheat last week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw a chart breakout, pushed by fundamental factors. Meanwhile, the soybean market saw technical selling and pressure from mostly favorable weather in South America.
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling with end of quarter and end of year positioning and favorable weather in Brazil.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Brazil is a beef-exporting juggernaut, but the country’s ability to tame global prices may soon be tested.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says some algorithm trades moved the grain market with year end position squaring but there was also spillover from macro markets like gold and silver.