USDA’s initial projection for corn yields this year in Thursday’s Supply & Demand Report was 4 bu. per acre below trendline due to the slow planting pace. There have been only five other years when USDA went with an initial sub-trend yield due to slow plantings – 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2013. In four of those years, the final yield ended below trendline, while 2009 produced an above-trend (and then-record) yield after a slow start. Despite slow plantings in 2019, USDA did not lower its initial projection from trendline in May.
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Years with planting paces comparable to this year’s 22% figure as of May 8 were 1993 at 17%, 1995 at 22%, 2013 at 19% and 2019 at 26%. The final corn yield was well below trend each of those years by an average of 8.9%, though taking the 1993 disaster out of the equation reduces it to a 5.8% decline. Final acres declined in each of those years from March intentions by an average of 3 million acres. Applying the average acreage and yield (minus the 1993 disaster) changes to this year’s March planting intentions and a trendline yield of 181.0 bu. per acre, it would project a corn crop of roughly 13.4 billion bu. — about 1 billion bu. less than USDA’s May projection. While that figure is based on averages from those years, it seems like a worst-case scenario – for now.
