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South America weather pattern to hold through January...
The weather pattern of Argentina and southern Brazil being dry and central to northern Brazil wetter than normal will remain in place in January, according to World Weather. In its updated forecast, World Weather says crop conditions from Paraguay through southern Brazil are expected to decline. Any moisture from the rains forecast for Wednesday and Thursday is expected to evaporate quickly.Next week, more rain is expected for the area. However, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, is expected to get the least amount of rain.
Areas of central and northeastern Brazil are forecast to get regular rain. That will raise the need for drier conditions to maturing soybeans.
For Argentina, crop conditions are expected to decline and expand to the central and northern areas. Any near-term rains will be offset by the warm to hot temperatures in the area. Soil moisture levels in the southern part of the country are predicted to keep crops from declining.
There are signs La Nina is weakening, but that it’s a slow decline. World Weather says that suggests the current weather pattern will continue into January. Depending how quickly and how much La Nina dissipates, that could mean more rain chances in Argentina and southern Brazil in February.
Winterkill a threat to U.S. winter wheat... A predicted upcoming cold snap this weekend could damage winter wheat in the United States, according to World Weather. With recent and forecast bitter cold temperatures in the Plains, more snow is needed to protect the dormant wheat crop.
In Montana, there is some snow protecting the crop. However, some areas will need more snow to insulate the wheat from recent and forecasted bitter cold temperatures.
Extreme cold temperatures are expected to continue to stress livestock in the Northern Plains.
In the HRW areas of the Central Plains, single digit to negative temperatures are forecast for an area that includes Nebraska, northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. The area is expected to get snowfall before the colder temperatures. If the snow does not arrive, there are worries about winterkill, especially after warmer fall temperatures and recent high winds.
World Weather notes while there has been news about snowpack in the Western U.S., the region will need more moisture to end the drought and increase water supplies.
EPA sets dates for workshop on biofuel greenhouse gas modeling... EPA has announced a two-day virtual public meeting/workshop on biofuel greenhouse gas (GHG) modeling to “solicit information on the current scientific understanding of greenhouse gas modeling of land-based biofuels in the transportation sector (link). The sessions are set for Feb. 28 and March 1, with EPA aiming to gather information that “will be used to inform a range of current and future actions, including EPA’s methodology for quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions under the Renewable Fuels Standard.” EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality is holding the sessions in consultation with USDA and the Department of Energy. EPA said they want to use the sessions to start a public process for input on “how to incorporate the best available science into an update of our lifecycle analysis (LCA) of biofuels,” and to assess what “steps EPA should take next in this work area.” This figures to be a potentially important session as biofuel supporters have maintained that the current GHG modeling and LCA being used for corn-based ethanol is outdated. Link to read more about EPA’s coming sessions.
USDA formally adds Dominican Republic to list of countries with ASF... USDA published a notice in the Federal Register that the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has added the Dominican Republic to the list of regions considered to be affected with African swine fever (ASF). APHIS added the country to the list July 28 following notification that swine in the country tested positive for ASF. Pork and pork products from the Dominican Republic, including casings, are subject to APHIS import restrictions. There are no changes relative to the status of the Dominican Republic as the notice published today “serves as an official record and public notification of the APHIS action.”
Brazil to test renewable diesel in bus lines... Starting next month, Brazil will test its 15% renewable diesel made partly out of edible oils in three bus lines in the southern city of Curitiba for the next six months, according to officials. Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras will provide 120,000 liters of renewable diesel with 5% diesel made from co-processed products. Fuel distributor Vibra will then add 10% renewable diesel to the blend.
The diesel will then be tested in buses by fleet owner Auto Viacao Redentor.
Russia unlikely to meet May’s oil target... Lacking spare production capacity, Russia is not likely to hit its May target of pre-pandemic oil output, analysts and company sources say. Many Russian oil producers report they are out of spare production as old wells in Siberia struggle to increase production. Industry officials do not expect Russia to meet its quota until August or September.
By May, the country will produce 11.33 million barrels per day (bpd), predicted a government official.
December oil production remained at 10.9 million bpd, despite Russia’s OPEC+ quota rising by 100,000 bpd.
Indonesia raises 2022 palm oil output... Indonesia’s crude palm oil output is expected to rise 2.6% next year to 51.01 MMT from a 2021 estimate of 49.71 MMT, according to the Estate Crop Fund.
In 2022, exports are expected to increase to 27.9 MMT versus 27.08 MMT for 2021. Domestic demand is forecasted to increase to 11.4 MMT next year from an estimated 11.10 MMT in 2021.
Indonesia’s domestic use of crude palm oil for biodiesel is expected to reach 10.15 million kiloliters in 2022, up from an estimated 9.4 million kiloliters this year.
The government agency that collects export levies provided three price forecasts for the edible oil, from $747 per MT up to $1,094 per MT. It expects prices to normalize.
