Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading around 3 cents lower, soybeans were 3 to 6 cents lower, wheat futures were mostly 4 to 7 cents lower and cotton was 20 to 100 points higher.
In reaction to the reports, corn is still trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, winter wheat futures are 9 to 12 cents lower, spring wheat is 4 to 7 cents lower and cotton is 75 to 200 points higher.
Annual Production Summary
Corn: 15.115 billion bu.; trade expected 15.069 billion bu.
— compares to 15.062 billion bu. in November; 14.111 billion bu. in 2020
Beans: 4.435 billion bu.; trade expected 4.433 billion bu.
— compares to 4.425 billion bu. in November; 4.216 billion bu. in 2020
Cotton: 17.624 million bales; trade expected 18.24 million bales
— compares to 18.284 million bales in December; 14.61 million bales in 2020
USDA’s final 2021 corn crop estimate increased 53 million bu. from November and was 46 million bu. greater than traders anticipated. The 2021 U.S. corn crop was the second highest, just 33 million bu. shy of the record in 2016. USDA increased harvested acres by 303,000 acres to 85.338 million acres. It left the national average yield unchanged at 177.0 bu. per acre, which was a record.
USDA estimated record corn yields in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Washington and Wisconsin.
USDA’s final corn yields were 202 bu. per acre in Illinois, 195 bu. in Indiana, 205 bu. in Iowa, 139 bu. in Kansas, 174 bu. in Michigan, 178 bu. in Minnesota, 160 bu. in Missouri, 194 bu. in Nebraska, 105 bu. in North Dakota, 193 bu. in Ohio, 135 bu. in South Dakota and 180 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA’s final 2021 soybean crop estimate increased 10 million bu. from November and was just 2 million bu. above the average pre-report estimate. The 2021 U.S. soybean crop was record-large, eclipsing the previous high in 2018. USDA raised its national average yield by 0.2 bu. to 51.4 bu. per acre, the second highest behind the 2016 record of 51.9 bu. per acre. USDA trimmed harvested acreage by 104,000 acres to 86.332 million acres.
USDA estimated record soybean yields in Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin.
USDA’s final soybean yields were 51 bu. in Arkansas, 64 bu. in Illinois, 59.5 bu. in Indiana, 62 bu. in Iowa, 39.5 bu. in Kansas, 51 bu. in Michigan, 47 bu. in Minnesota, 49 bu. in Missouri, 63 bu. in Nebraska, 25.5 bu. in North Dakota, 56.5 bu. in Ohio, 40 bu. in South Dakota and 55 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA cut its cotton crop estimate by 660,000 bales from last month, with production 616,000 bales below the average pre-report estimate. USDA raised harvested acreage by 46,000 acres to 9.968 million acres. It cut the national average yield by 36 lbs. to 849 lbs. per acre.
USDA cut its Texas yield estimate by 37 lbs. to 695 lbs. per acre. USDA lowered its Georgia yield by 21 lbs. to 931 lbs. per acre.
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