Strategas chief economist Don Rissmiller coined the Rule of 10 in 2011 — a theory that the U.S. economy is troubled when interest rates combined with energy prices reaches double digits. On Friday, the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 5.23% and the national average gas price rose to $5. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to fall into recession, saying “it’s amazing how pessimistic” Americans have become given the strength of the labor market. Remember... Yellen recently admitted she was “wrong about the path that inflation would take” when she stuck with her “transitory” stance much longer than private sector economists.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said: “"If we get to $5.50 or $6 [gasoline], that would be consistent with $150 for a barrel of oil. I think then, we’re done. We’re in for a recession. It would be too much to bear. I think we could digest $120 [oil] if we don’t stay there too long.”
