SovEcon further lowered its 2024-25 grain export estimates, citing new restrictions prohibiting sales of Russian grain by foreign third parties to sovereign buyers at tenders. SovEcon now expects Russia to export 45.9 MMT of wheat in the current marketing year, down 1.7 MMT from its prior forecast. That would be the lowest since 2021- 22. Total grain exports are forecast at 53.6 MMT, down 1.8 MMT.
SovEcon noted the new export measure would affect the domestic market as well. It also said expected further hikes in wheat export duties, which have risen 80% during the past month alone, will also weigh on exports. “This will lead to the closure of businesses for a significant number of small and medium traders organizing domestic deliveries,” SovEcon said.
