Price action: November soybeans plunged 46 cents to 13.64 3/4, down 62 cents for the week and the contract’s lowest closing price since July 26. December soymeal fell $4.20 to $403.00, the lowest close since Aug. 19. December soyoil fell 230 points to 61.56 cents, the lowest close since Aug. 4.
5-day outlook: November soybeans tumbled to a two-month closing low to end the week after USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks listed U.S. soybean supplies as of Sept. 1 at an unexpectedly high 274 million bu., 32 million bu. above the average analyst estimate. Futures likely will face followthrough technical pressure to start next week after prices broke under the trading range that last much of the past two months. USDA will report weekly harvest progress updates Monday. Earlier this week, USDA reported the U.S. soybean harvest at 8% complete as of Sept. 25, up from 3% a week earlier but behind the 13% average for the past five years.
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30-day outlook: The soy complex will face increasing harvest pressure in the month ahead, and continuing concern over a possible global recession could further burden prices. Potential further weakness in crude oil and Malaysian palm oil loom as other bearish elements ahead of USDA’s next Crop Production update Oct. 12. Firmer exports could help keep a floor under prices. USDA Thursday reported net weekly U.S. soybean sales totaled 1.003 MMT during the week ended Sept. 22, more than double the previous week’s 446,400 MT total. Top buyers included China (548,700 MT, including 132,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations”). Export demand has shown signs of picking up in recent weeks, with U.S. commitments now running 10.4% ahead of a year-ago, up from 9.9% ahead last week.
90-day outlook: South American’s crop outlook for 2022-23 will increasingly come into market focus, and many analysts expect a large increase, if not record combined crops, from Argentina and Brazil. Agribusiness consultancy Datagro last week estimated 2022-23 South American soybean production at a record 219.34 MMT, up 21% from 181.95 MMT in 2021-22. Longer-term, tight U.S. soybean supplies expected next year may limit price downside. USDA’s Crop Production Report Nov. 9 will another key to longer-term price direction.
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