Price action: November soybeans rose 4 cents to $13.95 1/2, the highest closing price since Oct. 13 and up 11 3/4 cents for the week, the contract’s third consecutive weekly gain. December soymeal rose $4.60 to $417.90. December soyoil rose 108 points to 71.50 cents, a four-month closing high.
5-day outlook: Soybeans rebounded from overnight declines to end the week on a firm note, supported by a recent upturn in export demand, with China making several purchases over the past two weeks. Traders will watch for any additional Chinese demand next week, after USDA reported a combined 1.955 MMT in daily soybean sales last week and this week. USDA’s crop progress update Monday likely will show the U.S. harvest close to over. USDA reported the soybean crop was 63% harvested as of Oct. 16, up from 44% a week earlier and above the 52% five-year average.
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30-day outlook: Abating harvest pressure in coming weeks could help soybean futures extend the past week’s gains, or at least keep prices underpinned, and further China demand could propel a move back above $14.00. Chinese purchases propelled the biggest weekly U.S. soybean export sales figure (2.336 MMT) in a year, as USDA reported Thursday. Still, the market faces bearish influences from an outlook for record South American production and low Mississippi River levels that have slowed export shipments. USDA’s Nov. 9 Crop Production update will help set the tone through the balance of calendar 2022.
90-day outlook: Once the U.S. harvest is wrapped up, market focus will shift to South American weather and export demand. A tight supply outlook for 2023, with U.S. supplies heading for a seven-year low, remain a long-term price support, but upside may be limited if the South America crop gets off to a good start. Earlier this week, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. on Wednesday said it expects to boost its soybean exports from Brazil’s 2022-23 crop-year by 11%, reflecting an outlook for a record crop. Brazil’s soybean output is estimated at a record 152.4 MMT, up 21% from last year.
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