Price action: July soybeans fell 10 cents to $10.41 3/4, and gave up 18 1/2 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans gapped lower in overnight trade, pressured by the 10- and 20-day moving averages as well as a hefty drop in soyoil futures. Meanwhile, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that trade talks with China are “a bit stalled” and will likely need the direct involvement of President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, casting further uncertainty around a potential trade truce between the two countries. However, a second straight session of soymeal gains curbed more robust seller interest in soybeans. With next week comes USDA’s Crush Report, due out Monday at 2:00 p.m, though any weekend trade developments could overpower the data.
30-day outlook: Harvest in Argentina and U.S. weather as plantings progress and the growing season advances will be in focus over the next few weeks. Recent flooding in areas of Argentina have crimped production prospects, though drier weather is expected for a while, improving harvest conditions.
In the U.S. too much rain in the central Plains into the lower Midwest and northern Delta will increase concerns over the next ten days, though wetter areas from Kentucky to Ohio will have some opportunities for planting when mostly dry weather occurs Saturday into Tuesday.
USDA reported 76% of the soybean crop was planted as of May 25, with Kentucky, Mississippi and Ohio the only states trailing the five-year average.
90-day outlook: Trade deals will be key as the calendar year progresses, with traders awaiting formal evidence of deal which would bolster demand for U.S. soybeans. Equally important, is the need for confirmation of a stronger biofuels mandate to further reduce demand uncertainties.
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