Price action: August soybeans fell 8 1/4 cents to $10.04 1/4 and saw the largest weekly loss since the week ended July 12, 2024, at 51 1/4 cents. August soymeal slid $1.10 to $270.30 and gave up $7.10 on the week, while August soyoil rose 26 points to 53.75 cents, but still marked an 80-cent weekly loss.
5-day outlook: Soybeans forged a fresh for-the-move low immediately after USDA’s late-morning supply and demand update, but quickly bounced from the low, which formed below the psychological $10.00 area. However, near-term oversold conditions limited sellers to end the week.
USDA reported old-crop ending stocks were unchanged from June, which was shy of analysts’ average pre-report estimate of 358 million bu. No changes were made to old-crop supply, though exports were increased 15 million bu. To 1.865 billion bu. on the demand side of the balance sheet. However, that increase was offset by a 15-million-bu. Cut to estimated residual use to 27 million bu. Meanwhile, new-crop ensign stocks rose 15 million bu. from June and were 8 million bu. Above the average pre-report estimate. Total supply was lowered 5 million bu. Amid a light downside adjustment in harvested acres from the June Acreage Report. New-crop crush was projected up 50 million bu. From June to 2.54 billion bu., though exports were slashed by 70 million bu. To 1.745 billion.
30-day outlook: USDA rated the soybean crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6, which was unchanged from the previous week while 7% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” While the soybean crop is in decent shape, weather during the latter half of July and August will determine yield and overall production.
World Weather Inc. maintains the two-week outlook remains favorable for crops in much of the Midwest where a lack of significant heat along with regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next ten days, which will leave soil moisture favorable and production potentials high.
90-day outlook: Exports will be closely monitored over the coming months as trade deals or lack thereof dictate the flow of commodities. Soybean exports of late have proven robust despite the calendar indicating a typically seasonal lull amid freshly harvested South American supplies. A diving U.S. dollar and lower prices have undoubtedly stirred export demand, with some buying attributed to countries securing supplies ahead of potential tariffs.
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