Price action: July soybean futures rose 17 1/2 cents to $16.10 3/4, still down 91 1/4 cents for the week. November soybeans rose 8 3/4 cents to 14.24 1/4, down $1.13 for the week.
5-day outlook: The soy complex ended on a firm note but soybeans still took sharp losses for the week on an outlook for milder temperatures in the Midwest. Weather and USDA’s weekly crop ratings Monday will be two keys to market direction early next week before traders shift focus to USDA’s acreage and quarterly stocks reports June 30. Both reports have a history of producing surprises. We anticipate June 1 soybean stocks at 961 million bu., up from 769 million bu. on the same date in 2021. We also believe USDA overestimated soybean plantings in March and expect a downward revision to 89.5 million acres from 91 million in March.
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30-day outlook: Midwest weather will be a key price driver into late July as the crop nears critical reproductive stages later in the summer. A continued lack of widespread rains and further deterioration in USDA crop ratings, combined with a potential cut in estimated plantings, could generate short-term rallies in new-crop soybeans or at least limit prices downside. Early this week, USDA’s “good” to “excellent” rating for soybeans fell to 68% as of June 19 from 70% a week earlier but up from 60% for the same date a year earlier. Emergence is about even with historical averages. Outside markets may also be a factor, with recession fears weighing on commodity markets in general.
90-day outlook: Late-summer Midwest weather as the soybean crop moves into blooming and pod-setting phases will be a major key to market direction. Export demand has been sagging recently, which may burden nearby futures. USDA today reported net weekly soybean sales totaling 29,300 MT for 2021-22, down 91% from the previous week, down 88 percent from the prior four-week average and a marketing-year low. For 2022-23, net weekly sales totaled 265,000 MT, with lead buyers including “unknown destinations” at 105,100 MT.
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