Price action: July soybeans rose 14 3/4 cents to $17.05 1/4, up 58 3/4 cents for the week and the contract’s highest close since April 21. November soybeans rose 7 1/4 cents to $15.21 3/4, up 23 1/2 cents for the week. July soymeal gained $4.60 to $429.90 per ton, a three-week high, and July soyoil rose 140 points to 80.93 cents per pound.
5-day outlook: Nearby soybean futures extended a nearly two-week rally to four-week highs behind bullish demand fundamentals, including stronger-than- expected exports, while resurgent soymeal also supported the soy complex. Midwest weather and planting activity will be two keys to price direction next week, with USDA expected to report another increase in seeding progress this week. Early this week, USDA reported the U.S. soybean crop was 30% planted as of May 15, up from 12% a week earlier but behind the 39% five-year average. The crop was 9% emerged as of May 15, behind the 12% five-year average. Followthrough strength early next week may have soybean bulls targeting $17.34, July futures’ April high, and the contract high at $17.41.
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30-day outlook: Midwest weather and planting progress over the next month will be important price drivers as market focus shifts to new-crop contracts and the summer growing season. A big jump in corn plantings last week seemed to reduce prospects for a major acreage shift into soybeans, but crops are still behind schedule, especially in the northern Midwest. The market will also keep a close eye on crushing and export demand, both of which remain firm. We estimated U.S. crushing during the first eight months of 2021-22 was up 1.4% from the same period in 2020-21, well-above the pace needed to reach USDA’s full-year forecast. With strong processing margins through August, crush is likely to reach or exceed USDA’s forecast.
90-day outlook: Spring and early-summer weather and the ultimate corn-versus-soybean acreage balance will be of keen interest, with USDA’s acreage report June 30 likely to help set the market’s summer tone. Nearby futures will require sustained demand to hold at elevated levels in coming months, and recent USDA export sales illustrate the additional business being generated for the U.S. due to the South America drought. For 2022-23, outstanding soybean export sales total 11.4 MMT, triple the average for mid-May from the previous five years.
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