January soybeans fell 3/4 cent to $9.93 3/4 and gave up 2 1/4 cents on the week. December soymeal closed $4.20 lower at $295.30, marking a $10.50 weekly loss, while December soyoil rallied 116 points to 46.30 cents, securing a 215-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Rallying soyoil futures lifted the soy complex this week but lost some steam after reaching a four-month intraday high in early trade, pressuring soybean futures from session highs. On the converse, soymeal futures edged lower for the ninth straight session to a contract low as bears continue their dominance. However, persisting oversold conditions could spur some corrective buying next week, though the marketplace will remain focused on planting progress in Brazil, which has advanced notably of late amid improved moisture, as well as next week’s election. Look for a mostly subdued tone as traders weigh the pros and cons of each candidate and their likely policy choices in the event of a victory.
30-day outlook: Weather in South America will continue to be a market driver over the next several weeks as Brazil producers continue their planting efforts and soybean planting in Argentina commences. World Weather Inc. notes regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next two weeks in central and most of northern Brazil and central and northern Paraguay, while southern Brazil and southern Paraguay will not be as wet as other areas and much of the region will dry down at times. Argentina is also expected to see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks, slowing fieldwork at times while improving soil moisture for spring and summer crop development throughout the country. The forecaster notes widespread soaking rains are not expected during the next two weeks, allowing some fieldwork to advance around the rain.
90-day outlook: U.S. soybean exports have been quite notable as of late, though there is looming speculation importing countries are securing purchases ahead of the election, with concerns of growing trade tensions. However, a more than $1.00 drop from the late September high makes U.S. soybeans a value buy on the global marketplace, leaving some ambiguity around the nature of recent purchases and if they will continue into the end of the year. Moreover, regardless of the election, traders will continue to closely monitor inflation and the U.S. dollar, with persisting strength curbing the competitiveness of U.S. commodities.
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