Price action: November soybeans fell 12 cents to $10.25 1/2, nearer the daily low and on the week down 20 3/4 cents. December soybean meal lost 70 cents to $284.00, near the daily low and for the week down $4.60. December bean oil fell 51 points to 50.62 cents, near the daily low and for the week down 155 points.
5-day outlook: The soy complex bulls laid an egg late this week after some promising price action early this week. The technically bearish weekly low closes in November beans and December meal and bean oil set the table for follow-through chart-based selling pressure early next week. President Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning. While reports said the talks were positive and constructive, it appears U.S. soybean purchases were not a part of the discussion. That apparently deflated the soy complex bulls. President Trump said the call was “very productive” and progress was made on many fronts. He also hinted at an in-person meeting with Xi early next year, which would be beyond the main export window that China has historically booked most of its soybeans.
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30-day outlook: Soybean harvest is getting an early jump in much of the Midwest, as the crop has dried down quickly. World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see a wet weather pattern through next Friday “and much of the region will see multiple rounds of rain with the southwestern Corn Belt into Illinois wettest. There will be mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork.” Much of the eastern Corn Belt outside of Illinois will be dry through Saturday with rain expected Sunday into next week for that region. Drier weather and improving conditions for fieldwork will occur Sep. 27-Oct. 3. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal through this weekend before some cooling occurs and warmer than normal temperatures are most common Tuesday into the following weekend with no risk of frost or freezes during the period. Harvest pressure and the related commercial hedge selling will pick up as September progresses, which will likely keep any price rallies modest at best.
90-day outlook: Veteran ag market watcher and Washington insider Jim Wiesemeyer told AgriTalk radio today that solid China purchases of U.S. soybeans are a must for the soybean futures market to break out of its doldrums. However, he said that’s a tall order and that grain traders are more and more adopting a “show me” attitude on actual China purchases of U.S. beans versus just talking and posturing from both the U.S. and China. Traders will remain focused on U.S.-China trade talks in the coming weeks/months as the top global soybean importer continues to mostly shy away from U.S. new-crop soybean purchases.
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