Price action: November soybeans fell 7 cents to $10.36 and lost 29 1/4 cents on the week. December meal futures fell $4.00 to $307.50 a posted a $6.60 week-over-week loss and closed lower for the eighth straight week. August soyoil rose 11 points to 46.56 cents but closed 9 cents lower on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybean gains faded as the session progressed, most contracts finishing just shy of the session low. Another back-to-back daily soymeal sale of 105,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25 boosted meal futures, though news of an oversupply of soybeans in China likely cast a shadow over today’s price activity. Reuters reported earlier today that importers in the country have ramped up soybean deliveries, fearing a return to a trade war in the U.S. despite poor crush margins and weak demand from the livestock sector. Price action throughout this week has been mostly consolidative in nature, indicating a pronounced move is imminent. With bears firmly holding the near-term technical advantage, next week’s trade activity is likely to be sideways to lower, though additional sales to China could help spur some buying.
30-day outlook: The U.S. soybean crop will begin to enter its most crucial growth stage rather quickly. Weather over the next 45 days will certainly be a market focus, as traders continue to closely gauge production prospects. World Weather Inc. On Thursday, the National Weather Service released its 30- and 90-day outlooks, which indicated warmer-than-usual temps will dominate the next 90 days in much of contiguous United States, with temps in the upper Midwest and northern Plains closest to normal. Rainfall is expected to be above normal in the southeastern states, Delta, Tennessee River Basin during August and below normal from the central Plains to the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while all over areas have equal changes for above, below and near normal precip.
90-day outlook: U.S. exports will be the longer-term trade focus for the soybean market. Weaker livestock demand in China, combined with weak crush margins and rising expectations of a U.S./China trade war could certainly curb China’s interest in purchasing soybeans for import during the U.S.’s peak shipping season from September to December. As of July 11, there were only 20,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China on the books, which compares to the five-year average o 3.746 MMT and is the lowest level in 19 years.
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