Price action: November soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $10.02 1/2, marking a weekly loss of 24 3/4 cents. December soymeal fell $5.70 to $310.40 and is down $14.20 from a week ago, while September soyoil rose 25 points to 42.42 cents and gained 74 points week-over-week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans extended lower for a fourth straight session to a fresh near-term low despite modest short-covering early on, following confirmation of additional export demand from USDA. Those sales included soybean sales of 132,000 Mt to China for 2024-25 and 212,000 MT to unknown destinations—50,000 MT for 2023-24 and 162,000 MT for 2024-25. USDA also reported 100,000 MT of soymeal sales to Colombia—12,000 MT for 2023-24 and 88,000 MT for 2024-25. While somewhat inspiring, traders continued to position ahead of USDA’s August crop reports on Monday, which will include the first survey-based crop estimates. According to a Reuter’s poll, analysts expect average production of 4.469 million bu. at an average yield of 52.5 bu. per acre and 85.11 harvested acres. Look for continued sideways to lower trade into the report on Monday, with increased volatility to likely ensue in the wake of its release.
30-day outlook: Harvest efforts across the U.S. will begin pick up in the next 30 days, which will provide increased insight into yields and overall production, with continuing to prove crucial into and throughout harvest. Moreover, traders will also increasingly focus on South American weather as producers begin to plant soybeans in areas of Brazil.
90-day outlook: In the next several months, the general marketplace will be riddled with news and volatility as the November election nears and U.S./China relations enter the center stage. Moreover, increasing recessionary fears, driven by last week’s downtrodden jobs data, have recently ignited volatility in equities and the dollar, with fading economic conditions around the globe exacerbating concerns. However, the oversold nature of agriculture commodities could continue to provoke broader export demand, though a slowing global economy could limit robust buying efforts in the coming months amid waning demand. Look for the marketplace to continue to closely monitor broader markets, with soybean exports a particular driver of the soy complex.
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