Price action: July soybeans surged 29 cents to $17.69, the highest close for a nearby contract since September 2012. November soybeans rose 14 1/4 cents to $15.82 1/4, a lifetime-high close for the contract. July soymeal rose $11.90 to $427.50, near a two-week high. July soyoil fell 31 points to 82.63 cents.
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Fundamental analysis: Nearby soybeans rose for a fourth consecutive session and closed near a 10-year high on fresh export demand, delayed planting in the northern Midwest and ongoing concern over tightening supplies. Early today, USDA reported a daily sale of 143,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to “unknown destinations,” including 500 MT for 2021-22 marketing year and 142,500 MT for 2022-23. The announcement marked the first USDA-reported soybean sales since June 2.
Also today, USDA reported net weekly U.S. soybean sales totaling 429,900 MT for 2021-22, nearly quadruple the previous week’s 111,600 MT tally and up 41% from the prior four-week average. Top buyers included China (128,900 MT, including decreases of 10,900 MT). For 2022-23, net soybean sales totaled 595,300 MT, with top buyers including Pakistan (297,000 MT) and China (261,000 MT). Both old-crop and new-crop sales were on the high end of expectations. In its Supply and Demand update tomorrow, USDA is expected to lower its projection for U.S. 2021-22 ending soybean stocks by about 17 million bu. to 218 million bu.
Technical analysis: Soybean bulls extended upside leadership with a strong breakout above the past three months’ trading range, pushing July futures above resistance including $17.65 and to a high of $17.84, a contract high for the second straight day. The next upside target is the all-time high of $17.94 3/4, posted in September 2012, and beyond that level, the $18.00 mark. Initial support is seen at Wednesday’s low at $17.26 1/2 and at the 10-day moving average at $17.19 1/2.
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