However, the stagnation comes as the disparity between fertilizer prices and potential profits widens. The agency on August 22 reported anhydrous ammonia in Illinois was priced at an average of $786 per short ton. With basis considered, Illinois farmers will have to yield an average around 205 bushels per acre for new-crop corn revenue just to match the posted anhydrous price. But the profit squeeze is even greater for phosphates, which have been overpriced compared to NH3 for nearly two years.
As farmers lament the lack of soybean purchases from China, growers continue to face the results of sharply decreased outflows of phosphate from China with urea suffering a similar fate. While the tariff dustup between the U.S. and China arrived long after China had already decided to hold on to more phosphate and urea in efforts to encourage its own domestic production, the current lack of resolution on trade between the two superpowers is doing nothing to tease more phosphate or urea out of China. This will keep supplies available to U.S. importers scant, and prices will remain high for the foreseeable future.
