A new report by Eurasia Group and the food security consultancy Gro Intelligence says the most likely outcome of the war in Ukraine isn’t a massive escalation by Russia or a sudden outburst of doves crying for peace on both sides — but rather a more uncertain, protracted stalemate. After fierce fighting, this would mean that the Donbas and parts of southern Ukraine settle into “frozen conflicts,” sanctions remain in place, and no durable resolution appears. That outcome will have devastating impacts globally, the report says, with little prospect of restoring Ukraine’s farming capacity or export routes, while sanctions and Kremlin countermeasures continue to push up the prices of Russian fertilizer and energy. Under this scenario, the report says:
- More than 280 million people will be plunged into food insecurity this year.
- Those facing extreme poverty will rise by 200 million.
- Those on the edge of starvation will rise by 7 million.
