Ukraine’s 2022 grain crop will be sharply reduced as the war impeded planting and will affect harvest in some areas. The Ukrainian grain traders’ union UGA forecasts the country’s production at 19.2 MMT for wheat (down from a record 33 MMT in 2021), 26.1 MMT for corn (down from 37.6 MMT last year) and 6.6 MMT for barley (down from 10.1 MMT in 2021).
UGA says the country’s grain exports could reach 30 MMT, including 10 MMT of wheat and 15 MMT of corn, though it says current export capacity can’t exceed 18 MMT for 2022-23. It says grain stocks at the end of 2022-23 could reach a record 25 MMT due to the sharp fall in exports and may rise to 43 MMT in a worst-case scenario.
