Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) November field crop outlook report for the 2025-26 crop year, released Wednesday afternoon, said uncertainty in Canadian and global grain markets remains elevated, primarily due to persistent geopolitical factors that continue to disrupt trade flows and market stability. Production of all principal field crops in Canada is estimated at 107.0 million MT, an increase of 10.4% from 2024 and 16.2% above the 2020–2024 average of 92.1 million MT. This marks the largest crop on record, surpassing the previous high of 100.1 million MT set in 2020 by 7%.
Western Canada is projected to lead growth, with production rising 16% year-over-year to 85.3 million MT, which is 23% above the five-year average, as nearly all crops posted gains. In contrast, Eastern Canada’s output is expected to decline 6.5% from 2024, driven by lower corn and soybean production that outweighed gains in wheat. The primary driver of higher production was improved yields, as the total harvested area remained largely unchanged. Year-over-year, production by commodity group showed notable gains: wheat rose 11%, with growth in both durum and non-durum varieties. Oilseeds were up 7%, as canola and flaxseed gains offset a smaller soybean crop. Coarse grains were higher by 7% with increases across all coarse grains except corn. Pulse and special crops (P&SC) increased by 32%, largely due to higher pea and lentil production.
Exports of principal field crops are projected to decline 4% from last year yet remains 9% above the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) are forecast to rise 68%, driven by higher production and reduced export volumes. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to decline year-over-year, with the exception of soybeans and mustard, which are expected to post slight increases.
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