USDA released is initial 2022-23 balance sheets at the start of its annual Ag Outlook Forum this morning.
- Corn: Planted acreage of 92.0 million, with harvested acres of 84.2 million and a yield of 181 bu. per acre would produce a crop of 15.24 billion bushels. Total supply is projected at 16.805 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 14.840 billion bu., including 5.65 billion bu. for feed and residual, 6.84 billion bu. for food, seed and industrial (5.4 billion bu. for ethanol) and 2.35 billion bu. for exports. Ending stocks are projected to climb to 1.965 billion bu. (13.2% stocks:use), with the average cash price expected to decline to $5.00.
- Soybeans: Planted acreage of 88.0 million, with harvested acres of 87.2 million and a yield of 51.5 bu. per acre would produce a crop of 4.49 billion bushels. Total supply is projected at 4.83 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 4.525 billion bu., including a record 2.25 billion bu. of crush and exports of 2.15 billion bushels. That would lower ending stocks to 305 million bu. (6.7% stocks:use). The average cash price is projected to fall to $12.75.
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- Wheat: Total planted acreage of 48.0 million, with harvested acreage at 39.5 million and yield of 49.1 bu. per acre would produce a crop of 1.94 billion bushels. Total supply is projected at 2.708 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 1.977 billion bu., including domestic use of 1.127 billion bu. and exports of 850 million bushels. That would raise ending stocks to 731 million bu. (37.0% stocks:use) and lower the average cash price to $6.80.
- Cotton: Total plantings of 12.7 million acres, with harvested acreage of 10.2 million and a yield of 856 lbs. per acre would produce a crop of 18.2 million bales. Total supply is projected at 21.7 million bales. Total use is projected at 18.2 million bales, including 2.65 million bales of domestic use and exports of 15.5 million bales. That would increase ending stocks to 3.6 million bales (19.9% stocks:use). The average cash price is projected to fall to 80 cents per pound.
- Cattle: Total U.S. beef production is projected at 27.4 billion lbs., down 2% from 2021. Exports are projected to decline to 3.27 billion lbs., down 5.1% from last year. The cash steer price for 2022 is forecast to average $137.50, $15.10 above last year and the highest price since 2015.
- Hogs: U.S. pork production is projected at 27.4 billion lbs., down 1.1% from last year. Exports are expected to decline 3.1% from last year to 6.81 billion pounds. The cash hog price is projected to average $65.00, which would be down $2.29 from last year.
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