Seth Meyer, chief economist at USDA, told Reuters developing countries in North Africa and elsewhere could be the first to see some relief in prices at grocery stores, as commodity crops have fallen to pre-war levels and as North American crops develop. “It is a more immediate effect. Lower commodity prices reduce the import bill of certain importing countries and can moderate some of what we’ve seen in relation to food price inflation,” Meyer said.
In the U.S. there would be a bigger lag because food goes through more processing and complex supply chains. “Wheat, corn or rice make up a pretty small share of the food dollars that [U.S.] consumers spend,” Meyer said. “The more processed a product you have, the longer the lag in the transmission into food price inflation and the more sticky those output prices are for more processed commodities.”
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