Price action: March SRW wheat rose 11 1/2 cents to $7.63 1/4, down 23 cents from $7.86 1/4 at the end of last week. March HRW rose gained 16 3/4 cents to $7.85 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents for the week. March spring wheat rose 12 1/4 cents to $9.13, down 7 1/4 cents for the week
5-day outlook: SRW wheat futures fell for the first week in the past three and charts strongly suggest prices may have established a near-term peak, but the market has demonstrated a capacity to generate renewed buying interest following slumps. USDA’s Supply and Demand report Feb. 9 may carry some price impact. USDA is expected to lower its 2021-22 global ending wheat stocks estimate by about 60,000 MT, to 279.89 MMT, underscoring tight supplies for milling-quality wheat.
30-day outlook: Russia-Ukraine tensions will be closely followed. Concern Russia may invade Ukraine seemed to dissipate this week, contributing to selling pressure in wheat prices, but a flare-up could quickly spark another rally. Upside will be limited as long as U.S. wheat continues a soft export pace. USDA yesterday reported net weekly wheat sales of just 57,500 MT for 2021-22 and 103,500 MT for 2022-23. The old-crop sales were down sharply from a marketing-year high of 676,700 MT the previous week and the second lowest for 2021-22.
90-day outlook: Expanding drought and lack of snow cover in the U.S. Plains HRW belt may lead to greater than usual acreage abandonment. Little precipitation is expected in the Plains the next two weeks, which will lead to a continuation of drought conditions, World Weather Inc. said today. “Completely dry weather is unlikely,” World Weather said. “There will be some occasional shower activity; however, the general pattern of unusual dryness will continue. The need for greater moisture will be increasing later in February as spring gets closer.”
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