Price action: July SRW wheat fell 18 1/4 cents to $10.40, down $1.00 3/4 for the week. July HRW wheat dropped 22 1/2 cents to $11.21, down $1.14 1/4 for the week. July spring wheat fell 7 3/4 cents to $11.91 3/4, down $1.13 for the week.
5-day outlook: Winter wheat futures fell a third consecutive week, solidifying near-term price downtrends on daily charts and suggesting some followthrough technical selling pressure is likely next week. The prospect of an agreement to allow grain exports from Ukraine continues to weigh prices. Spring wheat joined winter wheat in this week’s sell-off. That suggests concerns over delayed plantings have eased or are factored into prices.
30-day outlook: Seasonal price patterns in grain markets favor bears over the next 30 days, partly reflecting accelerating harvest pressure in wheat. Expect wheat traders to look more to the corn and soybean markets in coming weeks as weather scares in both can pop up very quickly in the summer.
90-day outlook: USDA reported net weekly U.S. wheat sales totaling 700 MT for 2021-22, while net sales for 2022-23 were 363,500 MT. The new marketing-year sales were above expectations. U.S. wheat export sales will have to improve in the coming months if futures prices are to remain at what are still historically elevated levels. The U.S. dollar index trading near a 20-year high signals wheat will remain uncompetitive on world markets.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
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