Reviewing Senate 2016 Elections

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The following is our initial look at 2016 Senate elections. We will revisit the topic once both political parties officially have a presidential candidate because, especially with Republicans, who heads the presidential ticket could have down-ballot implications. Our conclusions follow these important bullets:

• Timeline. Elections for the US Senate will be held on November 8, 2016.
• 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2017 until January 3, 2023.
• More GOP seats up vs Dems. 24 of the Senate seats are currently held by Republicans; 10 Democrats.
• Current Congress. Republicans, having taken control of the Senate in the 2014 election, currently hold the Senate majority with 54 seats. Democrats hold 46, with two of them Independents caucusing with the party.
• What Dems need to take Senate control. Democrats need a four-seat net gain if they hold the White House (a new vice president would break the tie), five seats if they do not.
• Republicans have seven seats being contested in states that President Barack Obama carried in 2012.
• No Democratic seats are up in Romney states.
• GOP seats at risk. Assuming Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is safe in his reelection race (he is being contested by a strong challenger), Republicans have six seats at risk: Sens. Mark Kirk in Illinois and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin are not favored to win reelection by many election experts. Hard contests are ahead for Sens. Rob Portman in Ohio, Pat Toomey In Pennsylvania and Kelly Ayotee in New Hampshire, as well as Sen. Marco Rubio’s open seat in Florida.
• There is only one Democratic seat that is rated a toss-up: Minority Leader Harry Reid’s open seat in Nevada.
• Of the seven competitive Senate seats, four are in some of the very closest presidential states – Fla., Nev., N.H., and Ohio.

Comments: While election experts have not been very accurate this election cycle, sooner or later we think they will be. One of those experts tells us there are 60% odds the Democratic Party will regain control of the Senate after Nov. 8 elections. That is not a big percentage and thus things could change. And they just may depending on who heads the presidential ticket for each party – notably the president. If Donald Trump were to be the nominee, and some of the experts are now saying some way he will, then we would up the odds of a Democratic takeover of the Senate.

Regarding House elections, where all 435 seats are up, prior to Trump’s rise in the presidential contest, experts noted there were only around 14 competitive seats. But since the “Trump era,” additional seats are now in play. But enough for Democrats to garner a net gain of 30 seats to regain control of the House chamber? Unlikely. But noted election expert Charlie Cook today in a column for National Journal wrote that “assuming the GOP presidential ticket is weak,” it could mean “a loss of a dozen or more seats for Republicans, cutting their House margin in half.” If that occurs, Cook concludes that “given the GOP’s current difficulty in pushing through legislation even with the largest House majority since 1928, [House Speaker] Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will have a devil of a time winning votes” if he loses his current cushion.

And if the Democrats were to capture the Senate and garner the new House members that Cook says is a possibility, it would be very hard for even a Republican president, by no means a certainty, to get things done. And if the Democrats would win the White House, those in agriculture worried about Supreme Court justices and regulatory issues in the years ahead should be more than anxious. Only three Democratic senators from the current Senate voted to override an Obama veto of a bill repealing the Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule. If the Democrats controlled the Senate, that override vote would not even had occurred.

We will have more on the presidential races in another column. But at this juncture it looks like the Republicans may be in a pickle – down-ballot concerns should Trump be the nominee. And if Trump doesn’t get the top spot, a lot of very angry Trump supporters who will either not vote or support a third-party candidate. If this is the case, Republicans could well turn into a real minority party for years, as the various factions of the party duke it out, perhaps starting another political party in the process – making Democrats very pleased.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.