Test for Trump Impact in Georgia Special Election

Sixth district voters in Georgia vote to replace former Rep. Tom Price, now HHS Secretary

The spend-happy Hollywood types have poured money into a special election today in Georgia to replace former Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) who was picked by President Donald Trump to head up Health and Human Services (HHS).

The contest offers an early test of President Trump’s political standing, with Democrats sensing an opportunity. Both parties are monitoring the results in the Republican-leaning sixth district for clues to the emerging 2018 playing field. Traditionally, the midterm elections are overwhelmingly influenced by voters’ level of satisfaction with the president.

Tom Price won reelection in November by 24 points while President Donald Trump only carried the district by two points against Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

Eighteen candidates, including 11 Republicans and five Democrats, are running on a single ballot in Georgia’s normally Republican-friendly sixth District.

If no candidate wins a majority of all votes, the top two finishers will compete in a June 20 runoff. The top vote-getter is likely to be Democrat Jon Ossoff, a 30-year-old former congressional aide, but it is unclear if he will get the 50 percent of support needed to avoid a runoff. “With eleven Republican candidates running in Georgia or Congress, a runoff will be a win,” Trump said last night on twitter. Trump yesterday accused “The super Liberal Democrat” in that race of wanting “to protect criminals, allow illegal immigration and raise taxes” he said on twitter.

Election observer Nate Silver said, “If the polls are right, then Democrat Jon Ossoff will receive by far the most votes.” But Ossoff “will probably finish with less than 50 percent, which would trigger a runoff between him and the next-highest finisher — most likely the Republican Karen Handel, but possibly one of three other Republicans (Bob Gray, Dan Moody Judson Hill), who are closely bunched behind her in polls.” Silver noted that the combined vote for all Republican candidates “will probably exceed the combined vote for Ossoff and other Democrats, although it should be close.” Even if Ossoff finishes close to 50 percent, Silver said that is “no guarantee he’ll win the runoff because the district leans red and Republicans will have a chance to regroup for the June 20 rematch.”