Trump Trade, Foreign Policy Strategy: All Bluster or Art of the Deal?

Canada, Mexico officials see a Trump pattern of harsh statements, then retreat

In discussing President Donald Trump, his proponents keep saying to read Trump’s book, The Art of the Deal. But watching Trump over the nearly 100 days of his White House tenure leads one to ask where the book is at in book stores – in the fiction or nonfiction section? Another option: the alternative non-fiction category.

Frankly, President’s Trump 100 days in office feels like 100 months, or perhaps years if he keeps up his pattern of harsh statements, then backing off them, then resurrecting them. The only thing we know for sure is Trump will not change, despite many in the general media continuing to think he will.

Trump supporters say his pronouncements are all part of his strategy. But officials from Canada and Mexico in recent days have labeled Trump’s approach a bluster game. Mexico in fact told Trump earlier this week that if he withdrew the United States from NAFTA, Mexico would not join any negotiating table for a new accord.

As soon as Trump flip-flopped on NAFTA, late Thursday evening brought another Trump whopper: he was considering exiting the Korea-US (KORUS) trade agreement. In an interview with the Washington Post, Trump declared that the five-year-old accord with a key ally was “a horrible deal” that has left America “destroyed.” Stocks of some major exporters headed sharply lower in Seoul on the comments. Trump added that South Korea should pay for its U.S. THAAD missile system. Our president likes to mix metaphors and geopolitical issues.

South Korea is the U.S.’ sixth-largest goods trade partner, and the U.S. goods trade deficit with Korea was $27.7 billion last year, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Next week marks an anniversary for KORUS and triggers a review period to potentially renegotiate or ratify a new version of the agreement. “We’ve told them that we’ll either terminate or negotiate,” Trump said. “We may terminate.”

Trump on KORUS: “It’s a horrible deal,” the president told the Washington Post. “It was a Hillary Clinton disaster, a deal that should’ve never been made... It’s a one-way street.”

NAFTA watchers, watch-out. The president said that the process of termination of KORUS is simpler than with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). “With NAFTA, we terminate tomorrow; if we did, it ends in six months,” he said. “With the Korean deal, we terminate and it’s over.” Trump added: “I will do that unless we make a fair deal. We’re getting destroyed in Korea.” U.S. meat exporrters would not agree with that assessment.

South Korea’s Trade Ministry said has no plans to renegotiate the agreement, the Associated Press reported.

Regarding the NAFTA battle, new USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue helped convince President Trump to back off his initial plan to withdraw from NAFTA. The Washington Post reported that as news of the president’s plan to withdraw from NAFTA reached Ottawa and Mexico City in the middle of the week and rattled the markets and Congress, “Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and others huddled in meetings with Trump, urging him not to sign a document triggering a US withdrawal from NAFTA.”

“Perdue even brought along a prop to the Oval Office: A map of the US that illustrated the areas that would be hardest hit, particularly from agriculture and manufacturing losses, and highlighting that many of those states and counties were ‘Trump country’ communities that had voted for the president in November,” according to the newspaper. Trump then said, “It shows that I do have a very big farmer base, which is good. They like Trump, but I like them, and I’m going to help them.” By Wednesday night, Trump had backed down, saying that conversations with advisers and phone calls with the leaders of Canada and Mexico had persuaded him to reconsider.

Comments: We certainly have a president in training. And of course, he will not change despite those liberals in the media wanting him to or thinking they can force him to.

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue’s involvement in Trump’s NAFTA turnaround is important to note. This is the most critical reason why a Cabinet member must be in place — to be at the table during key policy decisions. This is Exhibit A. Perdue was effective, we were told.

Wait, there’s more. Trump also commented on North Korea in an interview with Reuters. He said a “major, major conflict” with North Korea was possible if diplomatic solutions fail, although Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said the U.S. leader understood that military action was a last resort.

Trump had this to say about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, now 33: “He was 27. His father dies, took over a regime. So, say what you want but that is not easy, especially at that age. I’m not giving him credit or not giving him credit, I’m just saying that’s a very hard thing to do. As to whether or not he’s rational, I have no opinion on it. I hope he’s rational.”

But then Trump said something very revealing: He said in the interview with Reuters that he is finding the job more difficult than he had expected. You think?

On the lighter side of Trump... The following exchange is from an interview with President Trump in tomorrow’s Financial Times Magazine, by Washington bureau chief Demetri Sevastopulo:

“Sitting across from Donald Trump in the Oval Office, my eyes are drawn to a little red button on a box that sits on his desk. ‘This isn’t the nuclear button, is it?’ I joke, pointing. ‘No, no, everyone thinks it is,’ Trump said ... before leaning over and pressing it to order some Cokes. ‘Everyone does get a little nervous when I press that button.’”