USDA Adjusts FY 2016 Ag Export, Import Forecasts

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Fiscal 2016 US agricultural exports are now forecast at $127 billion, up from $124.5 billion previously, while US agricultural imports are forecast at $113.1 billion, down from a prior outlook for $114.8 billion, forecast to result in a trade surplus of $13.7 billion, up from $9.7 billion previously, according to USDA’s Outlook for US Agricultural Exports.

USDA chalks up part of the increase in the outlook to coarse grains and products. “Volumes for corn, sorghum, and feeds and fodders are higher from the May forecast, reflecting robust sales and shipments. Feed and other products, including distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS), are up marginally with continued sales to China.”

For Fiscal 2017, USDA forecasts US agricultural exports to be valued at $133 billion against imports of $113.5 billion for a trade surplus of $19.5 billion.

The rise in the value of US agricultural exports comes on expectations for more exports of oilseeds and products, horticultural products, cotton, and livestock, dairy, and poultry.

“Oilseeds and product exports are up $2.7 billion to $31.0 billion, driven by record soybean export volume and higher unit values. Horticultural product exports are forecast to increase $1.4 billion, led by tree nut exports. Cotton exports are projected to rise $900 million due to sharply higher U.S. production and tighter foreign stocks. Exports of livestock, dairy, and poultry products are up $800 million, primarily due to higher poultry and dairy exports. Grain and feed exports are forecast unchanged at $29.3 billion, as higher wheat and corn exports offset reductions in sorghum.”

Fiscal 2017 livestock, dairy, and poultry exports are forecast up $800 million from 2016 to $25.8 billion, as higher volumes are forecast for all meats. “While demand is somewhat stifled by a relatively strong dollar, economic growth in a number of markets is expected to buoy sales,” USDA said. “Although beef and pork prices are forecast lower on rising production, beef and pork export values are each forecast $100 million higher at $5.3 and $4.7 billion, respectively.”

The fiscal 2017 export forecast for horticultural products is $34.0 billion, up $1.4 billion from the 2016 estimate, according to USDA.

Comments: The fact USDA updated the forecast is not too much of a surprise since detailed US agricultural trade data will be released November 4. What is somewhat surprising, however, is the updated forecasts would imply September US agricultural exports would be $8.4 billion against imports of $9.3 billion for a $900 million deficit. That is based on US agricultural exports totaling $118.614 billion for the first 11 months of Fiscal 2016 against imports of $104.2 billion with a trade surplus of $14.4 billion.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.