The Week Ahead: August 29-September 4, 2016

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Politics will still be the focus for the final week of the congressional break. As the candidates continue to work their way toward November 8, some subtle shifts in their stances and views on certain issues have developed. As the process continues, those shift points could become very important on issues like immigration and other hot-button items as November elections get closer and especially as voters start to focus on those elections.

A key week on the economic front lies ahead. The main attention will be on Friday’s Employment data, especially after one top Fed official indicated that the report could be key relative to the Fed’s rate plans. But leading up to Friday, there are still other key economic updates. Today brings releases on Personal Income & Outlays along with the Dallas Fed manufacturing update, followed by Tuesday releases that include the S&P Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence updates. Wednesday will bring the release of the private-sector jobs data from ADP along with Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales releases. Thursday’s schedule is a full one, including weekly jobless claims, Productivity & Costs, PMI and ISM manufacturing updates along with Construction Spending. Besides the jobs data Friday, International Trade and Factory Orders updates will be released. Any new developments out of China will be key as the country seeks to contain some lending activities. But the overarching focus will still be on the key jobs report on Friday.

There are Fed speakers on the schedule this week, and their comments will be watched to see what focus they take on interest rates ahead. That comes on top of various Fed officials offering up their views at the KC Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. A trio of Fed officials are on the schedule Wednesday, including Boson Fed’s Rosengren (2016 voter), Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (2017 voter) and Chicago Fed’s Evans (2017 voter). Cleveland Fed’s Mester (2016 voter) is on the docket Thursday with Richmond Fed’s Lacker (2018 voter) on the schedule for Friday. How these Fed officials view the rate-rise situation compared to that outlined by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be key. Mester has recently given off some hawkish signals and she and Rosengren are the two having votes this year on the FOMC.

Pressure on U.S. crop prices will most likely translate into another downgraded outlook from USDA August 30 on US farm income. And USDA economists probably will offer up their first outlook for 2017 which may not be a lot rosier, either. The Crop Progress data remains important, with probably more attention shifting to soybeans as August winds down, with that release arriving today. Thursday’s updates include the Weekly Export Sales update which is key on the demand side as the corn and soybean 2016/17 marketing year is about to start. Plus, the series of current industrial reports, including oilseed and grain crushings. Traders will want to see if there has been another decline in the level of corn used to make ethanol even with a rise in ethanol output. And the week wraps up with a look at the US trade balance in the wake of updated export forecasts. Also, any global trade updates will continue to be a factor as we start the 2016/17 marketing year.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.