Waiting on who will lead USDA, USTR
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The new Congress will not start until January 3, 2017, so a holiday-shortened week will likely focus on the remaining key Trump Cabinet choices that include who will lead USDA and US Trade Representative. The list of names to head USDA seemed to be growing rather than shrinking over the past week so that could still mean a surprise could be in the offing for this post. The prospects for confirmation of the slate of Trump nominees will also move into more focus ahead as the wind-down of the Obama administration continues. The watch on new regulations from the outgoing Obama administration will continue as we have seen more than a few new efforts unveiled as 2016 ends. The holiday-shortened week will still have some key economic updates released, including regional manufacturing updates and a couple more readings on the housing sector. Markets and the government will be closed Monday in observance of Christmas, with the biggest batch of economic reports coming on Tuesday – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Dallas Fed Manufacturing updates. Wednesday will bring the release of Pending Home Sales followed by Thursday updates on International Trade in Goods and Weekly Jobless Claims. The week closes out with Chicago PMI data. The week will see another round of light trading volume as more traders will have cleared out for the year. There will still be some potential end-of-year position evening, but activity will again take place in light volume. Market hours will be normal for most trading on Friday, December 30, though the recommendation is for the bond market to close early. There are no Fed appearances on the schedule though that won’t preclude Fed comments from appearing. Fed officials don’t generally release their schedules relative to interviews with media outlets so there could be Fed comments for the limited numbers of traders that will be in place to asses. But the usual process of assessing each piece of economic data for how it could affect Fed decisions ahead will continue, with much of the focus shifting to when the next rate rise will take place with Fed members forecasting three increases on the horizon for 2017. Demand for US agricultural goods overseas like corn, soybeans and wheat will be one focus in ag markets. Like financial markets, action will be taking place in very light trading volume with many market participants already having exited for the year. But there will still be a smattering of data for those still trading to assess. The Monday holiday means two weekly updates on the demand side get delayed a day – Grain Inspections will arrive today and the Weekly Export Sales report will be released Friday morning. South American weather will continue as a backdrop for trading in soybean futures, with the attention on whether forecast rains have reached into areas of Argentina where dryness was becoming a concern. Market hours will be normal on Friday to close out 2016.
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NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws. | |
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