The Week Ahead: Feb. 15-21, 2016

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Congress is out this week, but the death of Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia has already brought statements from key lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle, President Barack Obama stated that in time he would nominate a candidate, despite a growing number of Republicans lawmakers saying votes on a new Supreme Court member should wait until a new president and Congress are in place.

Work will continue at the staff level on spending issues as the process of budget hearings already is underway. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has pledged his chamber will work on all of the annual spending bills instead of doing a huge spending plan at the end of the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.

From the US economic data side, updates start on Tuesday with the Empire State manufacturing update and Housing Market Index, followed by a full slate of data Wednesday – Housing Starts, PPI-FD, Industrial Production and the Atlanta Fed report. Thursday’s data includes weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed update and Leading Indicators. The week will wrap up with the Friday release of CPI figures. All the data will continue to be examined closely for how it may affect Fed actions in the year ahead, with particular attention likely on the CPI data Friday. Chinese data releases are also potential market movers, especially in their post-holiday trading.

Several Fed speakers are on tap and the watch there will be on how much they echo the views of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the global economic situation. Tuesday will see remarks from Philadelphia Fed’s Harker and Boston Fed’s Rosengren (2016 voter) and the first remarks from Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. Both he and Harker will be voters in 2017. Two other 2016 voters will speak – St Louis Fed’s Bullard on Wednesday and Cleveland Fed’s Mester on Friday, with San Francisco Fed’s Williams sandwiched between them on Thursday. Beyond these Fed speakers, traders will also intently pore over will be the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released on Wednesday, though that recap may carry a little less weight given Yellen’s testimony last week and her observation that things have changed since the December meeting. Still, attention will be on the scope of debate relative to the increase in rates and whether there were any reluctant members of the Fed.

For agriculture markets, weather in South America could garner some attention though recent rains have tempered what had been growing crop concerns. On the USDA data front, economists will update their Livestock, Dairy & Poultry outlook on Tuesday and Thursday will see the release of USDA data on Farms and Land in Farms. Due to Monday’s holiday, Friday will see the release of the Weekly Export Sales report in the morning and the monthly Cattle on Feed report in the afternoon. Given the up and down showing in the weekly export reports, the data Friday morning will continue to get a fair amount of attention from traders. Plus, they will also be on the lookout for any decision by Russia relative to the country’s export tax, since officials said a decision would be coming “soon.”

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.