Court challenge on immigration, refugee order | Cabinet | USDA reports
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A short week for House members due to a Democratic retreat ahead, with the big White House issue being a successful court challenge of President Donald Trump’s executive orders on refugees and immigrants.
The ups and downs of the new Trump administration continue, with the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit denying the Justice Department’s request to immediately restore President Donald Trump’s executive order banning refugees and travelers from seven predominantly Muslim countries from entering the United States. The court instead asked both the state of Washington and the Trump administration early Sunday to file more arguments by Monday afternoon. The Trump administration had appealed a federal judge’s ruling that temporarily halted the executive order.
Hard to believe but we are only entering the third week of the Trump administration. The executive actions taken thus far and new ones will continue to be dissected for impacts on how businesses and markets operate. The process of staffing the administration will continue with potential confirmation votes for key posts, votes at the committee level and a confirmation hearing on tap for Andy Puzder to lead the Department of Labor. Trump interactions with foreign heads of state continue to hold interest as well. Other action on Capitol Hill will see organizational meetings continue for several standing committees. Hearings on tap include sessions on EPA, the state of the US military and readiness of US forces, Afghanistan and modernizing US infrastructure.
Relatively light week for economic reports is ahead. The week opens with the Labor Market Conditions Index on Monday followed by International Trade and Consumer Credit updates on Tuesday. Thursday releases include Weekly Jobless Claims and Wholesale Trade and the data flow for the week wraps up on Friday with Import & Export Prices, Consumer Sentiment and the Treasury Budget statement. Traders will continue to dissect data for how it may affect the odds for timing of the Fed to increase short-term interest rates, but those odds have been scaled back for the March and June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Chinese trade data will also be released and markets will continue to keep an eye on the Trump administration actions, likely with some continued apprehension over what those may do to US trade and business relationships.
Federal Reserve officials are back on the calendar in the post-FOMC world. And current FOMC voters are scheduled to offer their views. Monday has Philadelphia Fed’s Harker (2017 voter) on the schedule with St Louis Fed’s Bullard (2019 voter) and Chicago Fed’s Evans (2017 voter) both scheduled to speak Thursday. On the schedule for Saturday (February 11) is Fed Vice-Chair Fischer. Attention on the current voters will be their views on timing on the next Fed rate hike given that the FOMC post-meeting statement was mum on that February 1. In remarks February 3, Evans signaled he rate increases to happen at a “slow” pace ahead and said while he forecast two such rate increases for 2017, he would be “comfortable” with three – the number that was the average forecast by Fed officials in their December projections.
USDA monthly updates on crops and balance sheets will be one attention point for agricultural markets. The February 9 releases from USDA include the monthly Crop Production and Supply/Demand updates. Markets may focus more on any foreign adjustments than on changes to the US balance sheets since there will be no supply updates on corn, soybeans and wheat. The weekly Grain Inspections data Monday and Weekly Export Sales figures Thursday will continue to be monitored for the level of activity relative to foreign buyers of US crops. Other updates from USDA that will be important include the quarterly Farm Income forecast on Tuesday, the same day that the US Ag Trade Data will be released. The income data could well show another downturn in the forecast while the level of the trade surplus will be one key for the trade information. South American weather remains another attention point, but forecasters have been signaling improved conditions so it may take a shift in patterns to prompt any major market response to the upside.
NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws. |
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