The Week Ahead: Jan. 4-10, 2016

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House members return to Washington on Tuesday, with the Senate returning next week. There are a handful of hearings on tap with some on health care and regulations. While there were a host of things accomplished prior to lawmakers exiting for Christmas, there are still legislative matters on their agenda to address, including Obama administration regulations.

The week starts a new year and commodity and equity market traders and investors are probably happy to see 2015 in the rearview. The week and year opens with some important updates and reports. The data flow starts off today with the PMI and ISM manufacturing updates along with Construction Spending. The biggest amount of data arrives Wednesday with the ADP private sector employment report. International Trade, PMI services data, Factory Orders and the ISM non-manufacturing update. The weekly jobless claims figures are due out Thursday, but the week’s major focus will be on the Friday December Employment report which will capture lots of attention even though there are also the Wholesale Trade and Consumer Credit data due out that day as well. As will be the case this year, now the focus on economic data will be on whether they support another increase in interest rate by the US Federal Reserve. China economic updates ahead will be important for market action to start the year, with the attention there continuing on whether data will raise expectations for more stimulus help for their economy.

Wednesday will be the focal point for Fed watchers as that will bring the release of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Those will be combed through for a reading on just how much of a debate there may have been about raising short-term interest rates at that meeting. The only Fed speaker that is on the schedule is Chicago Fed’s Evans, but he now shifts out of being a voter in 2016. That does not mean markets will discount his views, but they won’t garner near the attention as they would if he held voting status in 2016.

Weather in South America and the US Midwest will be keys ahead for agriculture. Whether additional rains fall and continue to snarl the US barge transportation system down the Mississippi River will have a big impact on cash grain markets, as those rose as river closures increased over the past week. South American weather could be key to open the week’s trading activity, particularly whether forecast rains did indeed materialize. From the data side, some winter wheat states will offer up a monthly update on condition ratings, which could be interesting in the wake of Midwest flooding where SRW wheat is raised. Those state updates arrive today and the other figures of note on the schedule are the industrial reports from USDA on cotton, grain crushings and wheat grind. The Weekly Export Sales report will cover another holiday week (week ended Dec. 31), which could mean some more swings in the data.

Monday, Jan. 4
– Federal Reserve. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, is scheduled to take part in a panel at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in San Francisco.
– Economic reports: PMI Mfg Index | ISM Mfg Index | Construction Spending
– USDA reports: Export Inspections (AMS) | Cotton System (NASS) | Fats & Oils (NASS) | Grain Crushings (NASS)

Tuesday, Jan. 5
– Congress: House returns.
– Economic reports: Motor Vehicle Sales
– USDA reports: State Stories (NASS) | US Bioenergy Statistics (ERS)

Wednesday, Jan. 6
– Monsanto posts first-quarter earnings before the market opens.
– Minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be unveiled at 1 p.m. CT. The FOMC minutes could give hints about future policy and provide more detail behind the decision last month to increase short-term rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
– Globalization. The World Bank holds a media conference call briefing to discuss the 2016 Global Economic Prospects report, including the “ripple effects of growth trends in emerging market economies, the likely impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, and natural resource development in low-income countries.”
– Economic reports: MBA Mortgage Applications | ADP Employment Report | International Trade | Factory Orders | ISM Non-Mfg Index | FOMC Minutes
– Energy reports: EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production
– USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | Dairy Products (NASS) | Milk Cost of Production Estimates (ERS) | Latest US Agricultural Trade Data (ERS)

Thursday, Jan. 7
– Federal Reserve. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speech on the economy, in Madison, Wisconsin.
– National Governors’ Association (NGA) holds the third annual “State of the States Address” to outline the governors’ collective priorities for 2016.
– Hunger. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) holds a discussion on “Ending hunger: How leadership, data and technology can transform the global face of poverty.”
– National freight strategic plan. Transportation Department (DOT); Office of the Secretary of Transportation holds a meeting by web conference of the National Freight Advisory Committee on an update on Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Freight provisions and discussion on the draft National Freight Strategic Plan.
– Economic reports: Jobless Claims
– Energy reports: EIA Natural Gas Report
– USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | US Agricultural Trade Data Update (ERS) | Aquaculture Data (ERS) | Livestock & Meat International Trade Data (ERS)

Friday, Jan. 8
– Economic reports: Employment | Wholesale Trade | Consumer Credit
– Energy reports: Baker-Hughes Rig Count
– USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS)

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.