The Week Ahead: October 17-23, 2016

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The final presidential debate takes place Wednesday, perhaps appropriately in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The final appearance by the two presidential candidates together will be the last chapter in what has been an interesting period for US politics. But more unusual developments are likely ahead with just over three weeks to go before voters go to the polls. Once the debate is out of the way, the focus should shift even more to key races in the Senate that figure to be important ones for the prospects for Democrats to retake the chamber. And a new debate has surfaced as to whether or not the Democrats can score enough House seats to win control of that chamber, a task election-year experts say is still not very likely with just 37 competitive seats in play, including six already held by the Democrats, and the Democrats needing a net gain of 30 seats.

Manufacturing, housing and inflation are the key economic updates in the week ahead. The week opens with Monday releases including the Empire State manufacturing index and Industrial Production, followed by CPI and the Housing Market Index on Tuesday. Wednesday reports include Housing Starts and the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Outlook with Thursday updates on jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators. China may also be another factor on the economic front with recent data raising fresh concerns about the country’s economy, especially if any new updates raise further questions on that front. But markets will continue to monitor data for how they think it plays into the Fed decisions ahead. Plus, earnings reports also loom for the market.

Wednesday will be two weeks to go for the next FOMC meeting as the Fed releases the Beige Book report that day. The anecdotal recap of economic conditions in the 12 Fed districts will be combed through for any indication of the update will bolster the case for a rate rise or argue for steady policy at the Nov. 1-2 meeting. And there will be some additional Fed voices heard from in the week ahead. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer leads off the week with remarks on Monday, with his views likely carrying a fair amount of weight with Fed watchers. Wednesday will see San Francisco Fed’s Williams (2018 voter) and Dallas Fed’s Kaplan (2017 voter) speak, with two appearances from New York Fed’s Dudley (always a voter) on Thursday. The week wraps up with an appearance by Fed Gov. Tarullo. Key will be what the officials say relative to the prospects and timing for a rate increase by the Fed.

A normal week lies ahead for USDA data releases, as the weekly updates on Grain Inspections and Crop Progress return to the regular Monday release date and Weekly Export Sales is again released on Thursday. Other data updates from USDA will include outlook reports on Livestock, Dairy & Poultry and Sugar and Sweeteners on Tuesday with Milk Production on Thursday. The week wraps up with monthly releases Friday on Cold Storage and Cattle on Feed. Traders will also make note of wheat tenders, seemingly whether or not the buys are for US-origin supplies as it is building expectations for more demand for US wheat. Corn and soybean harvest should continue to expand and soybeans should move past the half-way point in the Monday releases.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.