The Week Ahead: October 24-30, 2016

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With the presidential debates completed, actions by the two candidates will still stay in the headlines as even more attention should start on how the race at the top of the ticket could impact the prospects for Democrats to retake the US Senate and build their numbers in the US House. Key Senate races will be examined in coming weeks for signs of how those contests relate as to who will be in charge of that chamber ahead, and any changes in key committees, and that, in turn, will have a say in what happens or does not happen in the post-election lame-duck session.

More housing and other economic updates are due out in the week ahead. The week opens with the Chicago Fed National Activity and PMI Manufacturing Index Flash updates on Monday, followed by the FHFA House Price Index, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing reports on Tuesday. Wednesday updates include International Trade in Goods, PMI Services Flash and New Home Sales with Thursday reports on Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index. The week wraps up with the first look at the third quarter GDP along with the Employment Cost Index and Consumer Sentiment readings. The reading on GDP probably looms the largest since the expectation is the economy perked up in the third quarter after two subdued quarters to start the year. Housing data will likely be uneven again and the manufacturing updates also have been mixed of late. How these updates stack up to expectations will be key as traders continue to hone in on expectations for a Fed rate rise. Chinese economic updates always have potential to move markets given their importance on several fronts.

There is a burst of Fed speakers to open the week and then things will be silent as the blackout period ahead of the November 1-2 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting arrives on Tuesday. That will leave markets alone in their assessment of economic updates and how that plays into what are currently expectations for the December – not the November – meeting by the Fed to be the time for a rate increase. But Monday’s barrage of Fed speakers could also provide markets some fodder on that front with New York Fed’s Dudley (always an FOMC voter), St Louis Fed’s Bullard (current voter), Chicago Fed’s Evans (2017 voter) and Fed Gov. Powell all scheduled to make appearances.

Attention for agriculture interests will stay on demand for farm products, putting the Grain Inspections report today and Weekly Export Sales report Thursday as key focal points. Today’s update on Crop Progress should show rapid progress for US corn and soybean harvest as the past week was mostly open weather-wise. Plus, it will feature the first condition ratings for the winter wheat crop being planted this fall for harvest in 2017. USDA will update its food price forecasts Tuesday with the watch on for any additional downward revisions to the outlook for what consumers will pay at the grocery store for various products like meat and more. Weather will stay a watch point, both for corn, soybean and cotton harvest, but also for winter wheat development. Demand news will probably be a continued focus, especially if USDA makes more daily sales announcements during the week, especially for US soybeans to foreign buyers.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.