More than usual, farm budgets are teetering on the prices of inputs, notably fertilizer. However, another fertility problem is quietly reshaping farm life.
The threat of runaway global population has been abruptly replaced with concerns of declining populations. Eastern Europe as a bloc is rapidly depopulating, and the Ukraine war won’t help. Japan and Cuba are shrinking. More nations will tip to negative growth each year.
Recent data breaches of dubious official Chinese numbers suggest they are at a peak. U.S. growth has slowed to a crawl, up 0.1% in 2021 (the slowest ever). There are no countries with meaningful population growth rate increases. Nature has not had time to counter contraception.
CHANGE IN CHILDREN
The U.S. faces a total fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1.
The number of young childless adults who never anticipate having children has reached startling proportions, as high as 44%. A top reason is it will cramp their lifestyle. Seriously.
While many choose not to reproduce, a mystifying 50% drop (100 million per milliliter to 50) in global sperm count since 1970 might be making the decision for others. Opinions vary on how this affects fertility rates, but the decline is accelerating toward the 40 million per milliliter threshold. The assumption of offspring when we want them is far from a sure bet, as many couples discover today.
IMPACTS ON FARMS
The consequences will be felt sharply in our ever-emptier countryside. From marriage patterns (associative mating and more singles, etc.) to endemic loneliness, expectations of lives similar to previous generations will be misleading, even unhelpful.
Rural colleges face a grim future. Rural schools face teacher shortages and curriculum shrinkage. Rural hospitals face too few patients and funds. Rural culture faces a loss of critical mass needed for good lives.
Farm economics will face a slow climb on farmland turnover, as farms literally come to the end of the line, prompting sales. There will be opportunities for farms with heirs, but even the winners will face the reproduction/succession challenge.
These changes will be slow enough to ignore. Immersed in a global population facing identical problems, outside solutions will be unlikely. Family farm viability will be set by family reproductive viability. To paraphrase General Electric, “Progeny is our most important product.”
Farm numbers will decline due to lack of qualified heirs. With several children, the problem was who got the farm. With few, odds of no or incapable heirs soar.
Unrelated successors will be more common, particularly on multi-employee operations. The farm will remain, but the name will change.
