South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his estimate of the Argentine soybean crop by 2 million metric tons (MMT) to 47 MMT. He says while the weather has improved recently, it came too late to boost yield potential for the developing crop. Meanwhile, he left his Brazilian bean and corn estimates unchanged, as well as his Argentine corn crop estimate.
Regarding the Argentine corn crop, Dr. Cordonnier says he’s concerned about the corn that is currently being planted as it will need good weather through May to achieve acceptable yields. “The corn that was planted in August made it through pollination before the hot and dry weather occurred. The corn that was planted in September and early October was very unlucky and was pollinating in December and early January when the conditions were their worst. The corn that was planted later in November is just now starting to pollinate when conditions have improved,” he says.
Dr. Cordonnier 2011-12 Soybean Estimates | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2010-11 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 70.0 | 72.0 | 68.0 | 75.5 |
| Argentina | 47.0 | 52.0 | 45.0 | 49.0 |
| Paraguay | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 8.3 |
| Bolivia | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Uruguay | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Total | 126.4 | 135.0 | 121.3 | 135.9 |
Dr. Cordonnier 2011-12 | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2010-11 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 58.0 | 62.0 | 55.0 | 57.5 |
| Argentina | 20.0 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 22.5 |
| Paraguay | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Total | 79.8 | 86.0 | 71.6 | 82.0 |
