Commodity prices saw some pressure this week, and analysts say it’s largely due to gains in planting progress.
According to USDA, 83% planted on corn is planted, a point ahead of average. 68% of the soybeans were in the ground as of last Sunday, five points ahead of normal. That news, according to Standard Grain’s Joe Vaclavik, took some of the win out of the grain market.
“I think the row crop markets rallied a little bit on planting delays on the idea that the Corn Belt was too wet,” says Vaclavik. “We saw crop progress numbers out on Monday, and we’re kind of ahead of schedule for the most part. There are areas with delays, there are areas that are too wet. There are definitely areas where crops were planted in less-than-ideal conditions. But it feels like for the moment in the row crop markets, that that story has kind of come and gone. And now it’s going to be on to growing season.”
As the trade shifts to focus on the weather during the growing season and crop conditions, Nellinger says the planting season hasn’t been perfect. Some of the crop was either planted in poor conditions or replanted. He says some farmers are even debating taking prevent plant because it’s been so wet and they can’t get the crop planted this year. But he says the reality is June is a hard time to get the grain market really excited.
“The problem is in June, once the corn is there and growing, it’s green, it’s lush, and it’s hard to create a bullish scenario in June in corn,” says Nellinger. “And I think that’s kind of the fate that you know, the fact that we’re seeing this pressure coming into the end of the month here, as we’re about to turn the calendar into June here, the next two or three weeks could get a little bit ugly, just because of that seasonal tendency. And now even though there’s problems out there, the crop seems to be in the ground in the markets mind.”
Nellinger thinks a 181 bu. per acre national yield will be hard to hit this year, considering some of the planting problems across the U.S. Vaclavik and Nellinger started the 2024 yield debate. You can watch that in the video above.
