Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up Thursday night, and to summarize the week, scouts found record yields in portions of the Eastern Corn Belt, but a more variable crop in the West.
Pro Farmer then released its National Estimates Friday, which is Pro Farmer’s view on production and yields. The team takes into account what they found during the week on Pro Farmer Crop Tour, but also adds in other factors like crop maturity and historical differences in Tour data versus USDA’s final yields.
This year, Pro Farmer’s National Estimates are:
- Corn yield: 181.1 bu. per acre, 2 bu. per acre less than USDA’s August estimate
- Soybean yield: 54.9 bu. per acre, 1.7 bu. per acre higher than USDA’s current soybean yield estimate.
One of the most disappointing states on Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week was Minnesota. Wet weather this spring plagued planting, and the impacts are showing up in yellow corn and small ears.
USDA currently has Minnesota’s corn yield pegged as the same as last year’s. Considering scouts are seeing a crop less impressive than last year, AgriTalk host Chip Flory still doesn’t think that’s enough to get the markets excited.
“That’s it’s going to be tough to generate a lot of excitement out of one state that was expecting to be equaled a year ago, coming in below a year ago,” Flory said. “Now, when I look at the whole tour, Brian Grete saw a really good crop in Ohio, a better crop in Indiana. We saw a good crop in South Dakota, but not as good as expected. We saw a better crop in Nebraska, but still not as good as expected. I think on the first two days of the tour, all we did was move some bushels from west to east.”
Pro Farmer Crop Tour found a record corn yield in Illinois, but is it as high as USDA’s 225 bu. per acre state-wide yield estimate that was printed in the August report? Pro Farmer’s official Illinois estimate on Friday came out at 220 bu. per acre, 5 bu. per acre below USDA. Even with a smaller crop, editor of Pro Farmer Brian Grete doesn’t think it significantly changes the supply picture.
“We don’t have a supply issue, from a bullish standpoint,” Grete said. “We have plentiful supplies. And so that isn’t going to shock the market.”
With the potential for records in some states, as well as less than impressive yields in South Dakota and Minnesota, what will it take to finally find a bottom in this commodity market?
“A little bit time here,” Flory said. “We have to get the old crop corn, the ’23 corn, out of the system. Once we’ve done that then we can start to focus a little bit more on this 2024 crop. And when that market is going to put in a low, to me, it’s a late September early October kind of situation. We just need to give it some time, let this market flush out. And then we need to find a reason for the funds to get off the short side of the market,” Flory said.
What could one of those reasons be? According to Grete, it’s not just corn and soybeans seeing record shorts by the funds. So, it needs to be even broader than that.
“It could be any multitude of reasons, but they’re not just record short in corn and soybeans. They’re cord shot across all 20 raw commodities. So, we have to have something that spooks them, something that makes them uncomfortable holding those aggressive short positions and who knows what it’ll be. But we get to that point and then the money starts flowing the other direction and you can gain some momentum, maybe.”
China has been showing up as a more frequent buyer in the market, but Grete says the U.S. needs to see a lot more of those daily sales to make up for lost ground on the demand front.
“The problem is that China bought a lot of Brazilian soybeans up front. And now the question is, as we get into our key demand period from September to January, how many more will they buy and how many more do they need to buy,” Grete said.
Your Next Read: How Pro Farmer’s 2024 Yield Estimates Compare to USDA Expectations
