For four days this past week, more than 100 crop scouts sampled 2,000 to 3,000 fields in seven Midwest states as part of the one-of-a-kind Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Building on the boots-on-the-ground data and observations, Pro Farmer considers crop maturity and historical differences in Crop Tour data versus USDA’s final yields to release its national production estimates.
“One of the major questions heading into Crop Tour was whether the corn and soybean crops could live up to the lofty expectations,” says Brian Grete, editor for Pro Farmer. “Of the two crops, I was more impressed with soybeans than corn, and the corn crop is stellar.”
Here are the 2024 Pro Farmer National Production Estimates.
Corn Yield Estimates
“The first two days of the tour all we did was move bushels from South Dakota and Nebraska to Ohio and Indiana compared with USDA estimates,” says Chip Flory, host of “AgriTalk.” “We had laid the groundwork for a really good crop in Iowa, but in northwest Iowa, we ran into problems, which we anticipated after too much rain during the planting season. In our final day running the routes, we’ve got a nice crop in Iowa, but Minnesota is another story.”
On the eastern side of the Corn Belt, Grete and fellow scouts found a strong corn crop.
“USDA put a record yield on corn for five of the seven states,” he says. “Ohio isn’t one of those — but if we weren’t talking about last year’s record crop in Ohio, this year would be up there. This year is comparing to last year’s gold standard.”
Indiana: Trouble spots are few and far between. The corn crop posted higher numbers across the board for ear count, grain length and the number of kernels around the cob compared to the 2023 crop.
Illinois: While scouts saw variability in Illinois, the high-yielding fields far exceeded those that fell short, and the state is holding a big crop. Plant health looks good, and even the lower leaves are still green.
Iowa: Yield potential looks promising, especially in the southeast corner, the garden spot, of the state. The corn in east-central Iowa looks good, but the variability is more noticeable in the northeast.
Minnesota: The corn crop in Minnesota doesn’t look too good from the road, and it seems to have ran out of gas. Record rainfall during planting hurt the crop out of the gate, causing drowned out spots and yellow corn, followed by a dry summer.
Nebraska: Despite hail damage and fewer ears, the Nebraska corn crop looks promising with better numbers for grain length and kernels around the cob compared with 2023. Some dryland corn looks as good as irrigated acres thanks to cooperative weather.
Ohio: Despite drought conditions this year (59% of Ohio is currently seeing some level of dryness), the corn crop is proving to be resilient.
South Dakota: Historic flooding that occurred right after Father’s Day in the southeast part of the state left its mark. Scouts found fields with fewer ears, but grain length was up compared with 2023. It’s obvious the corn crop had two very different planting dates, so there’s two very different crops growing in the state.
Soybean Yield Estimates
“Soybeans could be spectacular as long as there isn’t a weather event that derails the crop ahead of harvest,” Grete says. “Typically, there’s some concern with either the corn crop, soybean crop or both coming out of Crop Tour. There aren’t concerns this year.”
Indiana: If soybeans can get a rain or two, yields should finish strong.
Illinois: Uniformity, heavily podded plants and good soil moisture — Illinois has all the ingredients for a big yield, which is a pleasant surprise. “For beans that don’t look that impressive, they certainly have a lot of pods on them,” says crop scout Mark Bernard.
Iowa: Soybean fields are consistent and show minimal pest and weed pressure across the state, boasting big pod increases versus last year.
Minnesota: Soybeans seem to have handled the excess water better than the corn crop, but yield will be lucky to top 50 bu. per acre.
Nebraska: More pods and pods with three and four beans are good signs.
Ohio: The pod factory is still working. Plants are heavily podded and recent rains pumped moisture into the pods. The drought seems to have had little impact on yield potential.
South Dakota: Soybeans are inconsistent and could go either way this year. The crop is still filling out and has a ton of work to do to realize its potential, Flory says. If it doesn’t get it done, then it’s probably not going to be last year’s bean crop.
Tyne Morgan, host of “U.S. Farm Report,” sits down with Chip Flory and Brian Grete to recap the highlights and lowlights from the 32nd Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
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