The military action with Iran has led to the virtual shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipping routes and curbing supplies of fertilizer around the world.
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer for StoneX posted on X last Friday that due to the Middle East conflict, April urea costs were up 42% from the previous week, while NOLA April urea was 30% higher.
Fertilizer Supplies Threatened
However, the inability to move fertilizer products like urea through the Strait of Hormuz is also threatening spring supplies.
So the question is will farmers have enough fertilizer for spring planting?
Or will some farmers end up having to switch acreage from corn to another less nutrient intensive crop like soybeans?
Upper Midwest Fertilizer Supplies Look Good
The good news is in the upper Midwest, where it takes the longest to get product in place, fertilizer supplies are in relatively good shape.
Company officials with Mosaic and CHS says they have 85% to 90% of product already in warehouses, with more rail cars in transit. However, they admit the last of at least the urea supplies could be a tough lift.
Many Farmers Pre-Booked Fertilizer
As Manville, North Dakota farmer Scott Johnson prepares for the 2026 planting season, he’s glad he was proactive on his fertilizer plans, especially as prices surge tied to the Iran war.
“I’ve got all my fertilizer booked already, so I’m not super concerned with that.”
And fortunately his CHS retailer in Grand Forks reassured him they have fertilizer in place.
Johnson explains, “They said they’ve got a good majority of their trains in the warehouse already. They got to bring in two more in season, but they’ve got to. a lion’s share of it already on site. So having it bought or booked and knowing it’s already here, I’m not as concerned.”
CHS Says Spring Fertilizer Fill at 85% to 90%
Officials at the CHS Ag Industry Day in Grand Forks told farmers fertilizer supplies are mostly in place, except a small amount of urea they source from the Middle East.
Rick Dusek, executive vice president with CHS says, “So there is a gap. Fortunately it happened towards the end of the the the season not at the beginning. So, I think we’re we’re in pretty good shape, but it’s not all here.”
So CHS is looking at alternative sources for those last tons he explains.
“The prices have risen now where what other origins that manufacture urea you know are they able to fill that gap or not and it’s still a little bit early to see but markets have a way of working, especially when prices jump it it makes people take notice and there’ll probably be some changes and flows. So, we’re working through that as we speak and it’ll take a little bit of time to figure it out.”
CHS Still Offering Fertilizer Bids
While global urea prices rose $120 to $130 last week, CHS retail locations in the Upper Midwest are still offering bids.
Chris Kolstoe, director of operations, agronomy with CHS in Warren, Minnesota says, “We’ve still got we’ve got a supply plan in place. So, we’re able to still keep offering, but the price isn’t great.”
Less fall fertilizer was applied in 2025, but many farmers in the region pre-booked fertilizer, which helps.
He adds, “So, we’re between 80% and 85%, which is not uncommon going at this time of the year.”
Mosaic Not Hurt as Hard
Fertilizer companies like Mosaic aren’t being hit as hard because of their product portfolio.
Sherry Koch, senior retail sales manager with the Mosaic company says, “Fortunately, we we are a phosphate and a potash company. And so, a lot of it doesn’t affect us maybe as much as some other companies out there.
And while spring supplies will be tight, Koch says the upper Midwest has a lot of product in storage.
“So, a lot of the warehouses in this neck of the woods are pretty full. And so, we’ve been fortunate to be able to ship throughout the winter. We’ve been fortunate to keep a lot of our tons in a domestic, keep it domestic. And so, we’ve we’re feeling pretty good about where things are at,” she adds.
However, if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping the next two weeks getting the remainder of spring fertilizer needs to farmers may be tight.
