Corn prices took a hard fall starting in June last year. December corn futures tried to make a comeback to start the year after USDA’s January Grain Stocks report showed tighter-than-expected corn stocks, but prices started to reverse course after President Donald Trump made his sweeping tariff announcement.
As farmers continue to make major headway in planting this year’s crop, the number of corn acres planted this year will likely grow. USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report showed farmers intended to plant 95.3 million acres of corn as of March 1. With impressive planting progress in Iowa and Illinois, that number could come in even higher in June.
“We’ve got a lot of acres coming in here,” says Mark Gold, of StoneX Group. “We know we’re going to see expanded acres. Is there going to be 95 million? Is it going to be 96 million? It’s going be a big number when it’s all said and done.”
Gold says there’s no question the corn carryout is tight, which is a driver for old crop prices. When it comes to new crop, the question is not only how many acres will get planted, but will favorable weather push corn yields higher this year?
“I think we’re going to see over time that there is a market out there,” Gold says. “If we can just get a little bit of weather support, the USDA budgeted in a trend-line yield that’s maybe way too high. But they still need to come up with some more acres. Overall, I don’t want to be bearish corn right now.”
Over the past 17 years, the "summer price high" for December #corn futures occurred:
— Naomi Blohm (@naomiblohm) April 24, 2025
🌽 5 times in May
🌽 7 times in June
🌽 5 times in July pic.twitter.com/VMG9frlKnZ
What if farmers plant closer to 96 million acres of corn this year? Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson thinks the whispers of 96 million corn acres are already factored into prices.
“But we are still in that seasonal window where corn prices do have a tendency to still work higher from now into mid-May,” Blohm says.
When do December corn prices typically hit their summer highs? Blohm did the research. She says in the past 17 years, it’s occurred
- Five times in May
- Seven times in June
- Five times in July
“And then a lot of times we see that seasonal price rally occur sometime between mid-May and mid-June, and that’s when we have a better idea of summer weather and how things are going to be fairing,” Blohm says. “Just be aware a lot of times that summer opportunity for pricing will come when we’re most uncertain about the crop and you’re a little bit nervous about what’s growing in your field, but that can be the best marketing opportunity.”
Blohm says based on her research, corn growers will likely have an opportunity to lock in better corn prices over the next few months.
“And to Mark’s point, it’s hard to be negative to corn right now while we’re only just getting the crop in the ground,” she adds.
What about drought? It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snow cover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.
