5 Tips To Avoid Recency Bias In Your Seed Decisions

You’re not alone. The majority of your farming peers also suffer from one-year memories.

hauling seed
hauling seed
(Farm Journal)

You’re not alone. The majority of your farming peers also suffer from one-year memories. It’s so easy to make big decisions based on your most recent experience. “If a hybrid performed very well on your favorite farm, it is hard to decide to not buy more of that,” says Andy Heggenstaller, head of agronomy, U.S., Syngenta Seeds. As you prepare to make your 2022 seed decisions, use these tips to overcome this management misstep.

1. Select seed on a field-by-field basis.

Want an easy win? Set big-picture production goals for your farm, and then dial those down to field-by-field decisions, says Samantha Krhovsky, area team leader for Beck’s Hybrids in Michigan and Indiana. “Whether you farm 800 or 8,000 acres, every field works differently,” she says. Categorize your fields into below average, average and above average, and select seed for each category.

2. Dive into multiple years and sources of data.

Compile at least five years of yield and production data, Krhovsky says. Then, toss out the outliers. This will help you set realistic goals and choose seed options for broad success.

Compare your data to university trials, Farmers Independent Research of Seed Technologies (FIRST) data and other sources, Heggenstaller says. When reviewing seed company data, ask how many trial locations were included in testing. He says for the highest probability of success, you want at least 30 locations behind it.

3. Reduce risk by selecting several hybrids of varieties.

At a minimum, Krhovsky recommends you plant at least three different hybrid numbers to help you spread your risk. As you choose those and assign them to fields, write down feasible yield goals to review at the end of the season.

4. Trial new seed options on 20% of your acres.

Years ago, if you fell in love with a variety, you could count on a seven- or eight-year commitment of beautiful fields and top yields. Now, the turnover can be just three years, Heggenstaller says. As such, he suggests you trial new options on 20% of your acres.

Also, ask for a sample of the hybrids that are in their introduction year. “That will be the latest and greatest seed a company has to offer,” he says. “By adopting new genetics on your farm, you’ll be a year ahead of your neighbor.”

5. Make a contingency plan.

2020 was a showcase in how easily supply chains can snap. As you pick your hybrids and varieties for 2022, also pick a few backup options, Krhovsky says. Ask your supplier: Are you concerned about supply of my top hybrid? If it’s short, what’s the next best option?

AgWeb-Logo crop
Related Stories
Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says corn and soybeans were firmer on inflationary buying and optimism regarding the China summit. Cattle soared with higher cash.
Farmers in parts of the High Plains and Southeast need a break from relentless drought, while nationwide planting progress is outpacing the five-year average.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says commodities are starting to gain favor with the funds on inflation fears and that includes grains. A China deal could just add fuel to the fire.
Read Next
The U.S. House approved legislation to allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline nationwide, aiming to lower fuel prices while facing pushback over potential refinery costs and the impact on the national debt.
Get News Daily
Get Market Alerts
Get News & Markets App