The 2019 season was insane—right? Crazy as it might have been, Iowa is having a worse corn year now than even 2019. Soybeans have a shot at average but they’re not going to make new records by any stretch.
Iowa’s corn yield estimate dropped by about five bu. per acre compared to 2019, soybean pods per 3X3 square barely squeaked ahead of 2019 by 40 pods. The state has been devastated by drought and hurricane-like wind conditions that stripped yield potential.
Minnesota farmers take the crown for highest corn yield estimates this year, beating even Illinois’ 181.51 bu. per acre. Soybeans proved to be more variable, falling behind even Iowa. The state jumped ahead of 2019’s estimates by a fair margin.
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Iowa corn dives to just 177.81 bu. per acre estimate while soybeans hit 1146.30 pods per 3X3 square. The state comes in second to last in corn and soybean expectations, falling behind only Nebraska and Minnesota, respectively.
In 2019, Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated Iowa would reach 182.83 corn bu. per acre and 1106.91 pods per 3X3 square—or 2.74% higher corn yields and just 3.56% less soybeans this season. Compared to the three-year average, corn came in lower than the 183.61 bu. per acre average and soybeans came in just slightly higher than the 1136.27 pods per 3X3 square average.
“There has been just more gut-wrenching devastation,” says Kyle Wendland, scout on the eastern leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. “There’s damaged grain bins, trees down and the corn seems to have taken it hard, ear counts [in some areas] were down to 20 to 40.”
It was a taxing day for scouts as they headed through areas with derecho damage. Field after field of corn was lodged, snapped or on the ground—making it difficult to sample and providing further evidence that harvest in Iowa will be one of the most challenging in recent history.
“[When sampling] we try to make sure the ear is at least a foot and a half on the ground, make sure the stalk isn’t kinked or snapped off,” Wendland says. “If the ear is there and hanging off the plant, browned and dangling I haven’t been counting those because with another wind or rain event it’ll easily fall off.”
However, wind damage and lodging weren’t the only issues plaguing the Hawkeye state. Widespread drought penetrated the state, taking with it test weight, kernel length and pod length.
“Soybeans we found a lot more consistent themes,” says Zach Egesdal, scout from Forest City, Iowa. “Good counts, just not jumping off the page but really no poor samples. But it’s pretty dry, they’re going to need a rain.”
Here’s a closer look at Iowa’s yield estimates, by district (corn measured in bu. per acre and soybeans in pods per 3X3 square):
- District 1
- Corn 181.26, 81 samples
- Soybeans 1013.31, 81 samples
- District 2
- Corn 190.06, 47 samples
- Soybeans 1022.73, 47 samples
- District 3
- Corn 193.61, 48 samples
- Soybeans 1219.03, 28 samples
- District 4
- Corn 172.41, 72 samples
- Soybeans 1177.41, 71 samples
- District 5
- Corn 155.57, 37 samples
- Soybeans 1128.60, 37 samples
- District 6
- Corn 161.42, 69 samples
- Soybeans 1213.17, 69 samples
- District 7
- Corn 184.74, 55 samples
- Soybeans 1164.03, 51 samples
- District 8
- Corn 177.96, 21 samples
- Soybeans 1323.68, 19 samples
- District 9
- Corn 189.22, 30 samples
- Soybeans 1240.85, 28 samples
In 2019, scouts pulled 815 samples. Despite challenges they upped their sampling this year to 511 total corn and soybean samples.
Minnesota corn yield estimate soared to a shocking 195.08 bu. per acre, while soybeans landed at 1085.84 pods per 3X3 square. While corn is something to be admired, the state’s soybean expectations leave some to be desired.
Compared to the three-year average, corn is ahead of the 180.19 average by 8.26%. Despite it being the lowest of the seven states sampled, Minnesota’s soybean samples beat their three-year average of 1025.25 by 5.91%.
Yield estimates in 2019 weren’t even close—170.37 bu. per acre for corn and 965.31 pods per 3X3 square for soybeans. The southern part of the state experienced some of the drought-like conditions seen by Iowa farmers.
“We haven’t found anything super stellar in the bean corner,” says Brand Nelson, scout on the tour who farms in Albert Lea, Minn. “But over the years we’ve seen those [low] numbers for Minnesota pull out a 50 bu. bean crop.”
Overall, soybeans didn’t impress the scouts in Minnesota like the corn crop did. They legume was more variable across the state.
“The first two stops, we took two of the highest corn yield checks we’ve seen on our routes this whole way in non-irrigated fields,” says Ted Seifried, scout on the tour and broker. “You’ve got good sized ears, good length and good grain around.”
According to Nelson, corn is ahead on schedule in terms of maturity at half to three-quarter dent. He expects black layer to hit between Sept. 15 and 25.
Check out how each district varied, especially in soybeans (corn measured in bu. per acre and soybeans in pods per 3X3 square):
- District 4
- Corn 190.58, 1 sample
- Soybeans 648.00, 1 sample
- District 5
- Corn 191.10, 5 samples
- Soybeans 927.56, 5 samples
- District 7
- Corn 203.18, 54 samples
- Soybeans 1101.22, 55 samples
- District 8
- Corn 193.93, 101 samples
- Soybeans 1132.25, 100 samples
- District 9
- Corn 189.02, 49 samples
- Soybeans 998.93, 49 samples
Scouts pulled 420 samples this year, compared to 352 in 2019.
