There’s no doubt farmers are hunting to cut costs in 2025 — and one of the targets to trim is fertility.
“If your fertility is in good shape, there’s probably room to pull back a little bit,” says Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal field agronomist. “If you’re going to cut back on fertility for next year, let the soil test do the talking.”
Fertilizer plays a key role in crop production, accounting for nearly a quarter of corn’s production cost. While it’s an input with some year-to-year wiggle room, not everyone is convinced a widespread pullback is in the cards.
“In every call I’ve had in recent weeks, farmers are saying yields are better than they expected,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at Stone X. “That means more income, and while it’s not going to make anybody financially healthy, it is certainly better than we expected.”
Linville says more bushels are leading to better margins, but those yields also demand more from the soil in terms of fertility.
“Phosphate needs to be replaced if we want to raise that same crop again next year,” he says. “Our forecasted phosphate demand is growing, and we thought there was going to be significant demand destruction due to poor farm economics.”
New Tool Helps Dial In Decisions
As you make decisions about fertilizer needs, a new dashboard created by USDA and The Fertilizer Institute might provide some insights. It tracks everything from imports to price, including exactly how each input gets to the field.
Impact of Mississippi Water Levels
The dashboard says that according to the 2022 Waterborne Commerce Statistics from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, more than 11 million tons of fertilizer (excluding ammonia) originated in New Orleans and moved north in 2022.
That’s why water levels are important to watch.
“Low water levels raise logistical costs because barge owners want the same amount of money regardless of how many tons you have on the barge or how fast it moves,” Linville explains.
3 Fertilizer Production and Demand Factors to Monitor
1. Global Influences on Fertility Markets This Fall
“We still have to keep our eyes on global situations,” Linville says. “We have to continue to watch countries such as China. What are they exporting or not exporting because they’re massive for urea and phosphate globally. Then there’s the Russia and Ukraine situation. Does it spiral any further? There’s also the Israel versus the Middle East situation. Does that spiral? All of these things are centered around major manufacturing and exporting areas of the world.”
2. Demand Trends to Monitor Fertilizer Markets
“We’ve got to watch what demand looks like this fall,” Linville stresses. “Early indications have been for good demand, but that does not mean fall is going to be good. What if farmers say, ‘Yeah, this doesn’t work. I’m staying away from it.’ What if it gets cold earlier? What if it gets wet and stays wet? There are plenty of things that can trip up farmers and change the entire outlook.”
3. Farmer Behavior Shifts and Their Impact on Prices
“We’re used to getting a lot of products sold for spring, and that’s not happening this year. Farmers are dragging their feet, and it’s changing the game,” Linville says. “Unfortunately, it’s a little bit like water behind a dam. Eventually that dam will break. The longer you wait, the more it’s going to hurt when it bursts. Just-in-time demand can push prices down in the short term but eventually, just-in-time demand meets just-in-time logistics. That means higher prices.”
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