Soybean prices are up 7.4% since May 9, with prices surging again this week. The July soybean contract posted closes in the green four out of five days this week, kicking the week off with a 63¢ price jump on Monday.
“The soybean market right now is just continuing to be aware of how tight the ending stocks are in the United States,” says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing. “It’s 235 million bushel for old crop, just over 300 million for the new crop. And that’s with all of those bigger expected acres that the USDA gave us on the March 31 report.”
November 2022 soybean prices are up 7.4% since May 9
Prices climbed 3.4% this week
Blohm helped break down what’s moving the markets on U.S. Farm Report this weekend. She says the market is watching a couple key factors very closely.
“It’s nervous that if we don’t get all of those acres into the ground, like we were talking about with North Dakota, that we’re not going to have enough production available to meet demand. USDA increased demand for new crop, we’ve gotten more demand for exports, and we have more demand for the crush,” says Blohm. “When you take into account how on a global perspective, all of our edible oils are still lower on supplies, we need the U.S. to have this big crop.”
She thinks the new-crop soybeans contract is watching the situation very closely, and if it becomes apparent the market needs to buy acres, that’s exactly what soybeans will do, especially for the crop coming off this fall.
“I think the new-crop November price is ready to pounce if it needs to entice more acres to definitely get planted. So really keep an eye on that November price in the coming weeks,” she adds.
The North Dakota situation is tough for farmers waiting to plant. An area key for producing soybeans exported to Asia, is facing an extremely wet spring. USDA says as of Sunday, 2% of the crop was planted across the state. The five-year average is 24%.
While time may be running out for those farmers to plant corn, Kristy Van Ahn Ahn-Kjeseth of Van Ahn and Company, says there is more time for farmers to plant soybeans in the state.
“For soybeans, they have until June 10 to plant, but a lot of producers have been known to go all the way to the end of June in planting soybeans,” she says.
The area is also one that has announced new soybean crushing facilities, with the hopes of cashing in on renewable diesel. Even with concerns about vegetable oil shortages around the globe, Van Ahn thinks renewable diesel will remain on track.
“What you end up seeing is the battle on the cash side of things,” she adds. “Producers in this northern part of the Corn Belt are in for what I think could be something really special moving forward with renewable diesel. It gives us some flexibility.”
Read More:
Running Out of Time: Prevent Plant Decisions Mount in Northern Corn Belt
Surprising Cut to Corn Yields and North Dakota’s Planting Nightmare Show Crop Supplies are Shrinking
