Drought Persists Despite Recent Rain, Forecast Points to Dry October

Rain finally fell across parts of the Midwest this past week, but for many farmers, it was a case of “too little, too late.” Much of the corn had already died down rather than matured fully before drying down, and soybeans had already finished.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s Principal Atmospheric Scientist, says the dry August and September is causing moisture problems in both the corn and soybean plants this year, with farmers running into issues with the crop drying down.

“Some people were trying to harvest because the beans finished and the corn didn’t dry down, it died down,” says Snodgrass. “So even when the rain finally showed up, for many farmers it wasn’t the help they needed at the right time.”

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

That drought is also showing up in harvest conditions, with many farmers reporting a lot of dust this year, making it hard to see.

Blame the Dryness on the Bermuda High

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed slight improvement across portions of the Midwest, Southern Illinois and the Plains, but there was also drought expansion across much of the East.

What’s the driver? Snodgrass says the expanding drought, which started in August, can be blamed on the Bermuda high.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

“About a month, even 45 days ago, we watched the Bermuda high drift off to Africa, and that mostly shut down our open access to Gulf moisture for most of the Corn Belt,” Snodgrass says. “Now, the Western Corn Belt did get some rain, and earlier last week a storm system came in and dumped what was left of the moisture into some key areas. But even with that rain, it really didn’t put a big dent in the drought in the Mississippi, Ohio, Missouri basin. Drought continued to build into the Southeast as well.”

The Two-Week Outlook: Dry Harvest Conditions Ahead

Looking forward, Snodgrass said farmers can expect dry harvest conditions — but that comes with trade-offs.

“We’re going to blow open the harvest windows in the midsection of the country,” he explains. “It will get drier again, it’s going to stay very mild, which is great for combines rolling. But the downside is that the soil isn’t recharging with the moisture we need for fall fieldwork and the next growing season.”

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien)

Still, not all regions will share that pattern. Looking ahead, a strong ridge pattern is expected to dominate North Central North America. That means much of the country’s midsection will see dry, mild conditions — favorable for an open harvest window but not for replenishing soil moisture.

• West Coast: Rain systems are forecast.
• Southeast: Rain will arrive, but from a tropical system with the potential to deliver extreme rainfall, possibly 8–12 inches in localized areas depending on what the tropical system does.

Global Weather Watch: Brazil in Focus

Snodgrass also pointed to Brazil, where recent rains have kick-started soybean planting. However, high pressure systems aren’t positioned to sustain rainfall over the next two weeks, raising concerns about early-season dryness that could hamper crop establishment.

“Brazil had a front come through this week that delivered rain, and that’s going to spark a lot of planting,” Snodgrass said. “But the problem is, the high pressure that feeds the moisture is not in the right spot, so for the next two weeks it’s going to be drier across much of Brazil. That could hamper planting. If they can build momentum, they’ll get a lot going just after these rains, but they’re going to need more to sustain it.”

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien)

Bottom Line

For now, U.S. farmers can expect drier harvest conditions through October, but with lingering drought across key growing regions and uncertainty in global weather patterns, soil moisture recharge may be delayed until later in the season.

“Weather’s going to take front stage for the next few weeks — North America, South America, everywhere,” Snodgrass said. “We’re in a critical stretch where timing, rainfall, and temperature patterns are going to have a big impact on harvest and planting alike.”

You can watch Snodgrass’ full forecast below.