Soybean Harvest Is Just Beginning in Brazil. Here’s What the Crop Looks Like

After a week in Mato Grosso, the AgResource team estimates a final yield estimate of 60.3 bu. per acre, which is 8 bu. more than CONAB’s current forecast.
After a week in Mato Grosso, the AgResource team estimates a final yield estimate of 60.3 bu. per acre, which is 8 bu. more than CONAB’s current forecast.
(USDA, AgResource, AgWeb)

The AgResource team has been on the ground in Mato Grosso, Brazil this past week. Here’s a summary of their findings from the soybean rows.

A large Brazilian soybean crop will be harvested in the next 30 to 45 days, and most likely USDA, CONAB (the National Supply Company, a public company under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply in Brazil) and private analysts will be forced to raise Brazilian soybean production estimates by 1 million to 3 million tons (37 million to 110 million bushels). A crop of at least 150 million tons versus 129.5 million last year is guaranteed.

AgResource’s final yield estimate in Mato Grosso, by far the country’s largest producing state, is 60.3 bu. per acre after revisiting possible harvest losses and disease pressure. This is 8 bu. per acre more than CONAB’s current forecast.

Their final stop of the tour in Cuibá, Mato Grosso, the state’s capital, included a visit to an organization called IMEA, which monitors and collects data on all things agriculture in central and western Brazil. IMEA reiterated they, too, are finding yields above expectations.

There will be yield loss in the far south of Brazil, but yield gains in Mato Grosso and surrounding states will more than offset any yield hit.

Harvest losses will likely result from new incurable (for now) diseases. Local farmers suggest it will be a challenge for final yields to exceed 60 bu. But there is very little doubt a massive Brazilian soybean crop will be available to the global marketplace in the coming weeks. Dry weather in Mato Grosso over the next 5 to 7 days will allow harvest, statewide, to reach 6% to 8% complete this weekend. Additionally, safrinha corn planting will occur on a timely basis.

U.S. producers must acknowledge that Brazil will intensely compete for world market share in 2023. IMEA also shared data with AgResource that indicates the area dedicated to soybean production might double over the next decade. Studies show a large portion of Mato Grosso’s current pastureland is conducive to soybean production. With expanded soybean area comes larger safrinha corn production. Price, costs and currency will determine just how quickly expansion occurs, but Brazil does have the ability to help meet larger global soybean, meal and oil consumption over the next decade.

Day by Day Recap

In central Mato Grosso, soybeans generally have high yield potential. On day one of the crop tour, pods per plant ranged from 65 to 182 with yield estimates from 40 bu. to 67 bu. per acre. Harvest is 10 to 14 days away.

In Sorriso, soybean yield will likely hit or exceed record high, but there are a few concerning spots, particularly 250 hectares (620 acres) on the fourth stop of AgResource’s tour. It’s been much wetter than average in central Mato Grosso since Dec. 1, with precipitation ranging from 15.2” to 16.0”, or 105% to 140% more than normal. Standing water is present. The pod-per-plant count was as low as 12, with beans capped at just two per pod. Yield is estimated at 7 bu. per acre.

Harvest has begun but is 8 to 10 days behind schedule.

2023 soybean crop in Brazil

 

Day two in Novo Maringá and Ponte de Pedra featured much better yield potential, but confirmation Mato Grosso is struggling with unknown diseases and currently no solutions. Coupled with excessive cloudy days and rainfall, yield potential has been capped but a record crop is still expected.

Stop one featured an average pod count of 76 per plant and an expected 70 bu. per acre yield. However, it’s clear disease has made the pods at the bottom 15% to 20% of the plant unviable. Agronomist Rafael Mandarino suggests pod loss of 10% was probable, which could lower yield to 63 bu. per acre.

Stop two showed further improvement despite disease issues causing probable pod abortion at the lower end of the plant or breakage of stems. AgResource notes that these are two separate diseases. Stop two featured an average pod-per-plant count of 46. Yield is estimated at 70 bu. per acre amid general uniformity.

2023 soybean crop in Brazil

On the remaining stops of the day, average pod-per-plant count ranged from 53 to 75. Yields ranged from 60 bu. to 80 bu.

To end the day, the AgResource team made their way to a field in Ponte de Pedre, a rather remote area between Nova Moringá and Campo Novo do Parecis. This field was planted later but will still likely be harvested in the next 20 to 25 days (remember defoliate is used). Yield potential is excellent. Pods-per-plant totaled 75. It’s early to say much about yield, but 70 bu. to 75 bu. per acre is possible with drier weather in late January and early February.

Harvest, which is ongoing, will accelerate this week. Combines and safrinha corn planters are active.

2023 harvest in Mato Grosso

On day three, the AgResource’s tour went from Campo Novo Parecis to Cuibá and found mixed results but again validated USDA’s Brazilian soybean production forecast of 153 million tons (5.6 billion bushels, a record) is close. There might be upside potential to only 154 million, but this week’s tour strongly suggests a crop of 150 million tons or better is nearly assured.

Stop one, in Campo Novo Parecis, featured decent pod counts and general uniformity, but also signs of disease, which likely will impact yield at harvest. The average pod-per-plant count was 40. Yield is estimated at 55 bu. per acre, a bit lower than the 60-plus bushels seen in areas farther north and east.

Stop two, in Seringal Tres Lagao, featured an average pod count of 50, though the majority had only two beans. Yield is estimated at 51 bu. per acre. Farmers reported challenges during early planting – the wet season was rather slow to evolve in portions of Mato Grosso – but otherwise there are no major issues. Harvest will begin in this region in 10 to 12 days.

Stop three, in Caju, showed massive improvement, which will likely push Mato Grosso’s soybean yield above CONAB’s current estimate. The average pod count was 65. Approximately 80% of the plants had three-bean pods. Yield is estimated at 71 bu. per acre. Development in this area is a bit delayed. Harvest is expected in the first half of February.

The southern edge of Mato Grosso’s soy belt will perform best. Stop four, in Manoel Laje, featured plants roughly 4 feet tall and very, very green. This field, too, will be harvested in the first half of February but above-trend yields are guaranteed. Pods-per-plant averaged only 42, nearly all of which were three-bean pods. Yield is estimated at 65 bu. per acre.

2023 soybean crop in Brazil

 

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