It’s been another fairly open winter in the Northwestern Corn Belt, which is a concern for North Dakota producers.
Scott Johnson farms just north of Grand Forks at Manville and says its the third year he’s had a black winter in the Red River Valley.
“I wish there was snow on the ground. We’ve had a black winter through the last couple. Last fall was got to be kind of dry and so it would be good to have a little recharge.
He’s hoping for better moisture for the growing season and better grain prices as margins are tight.
“I was doing break-evens for the banker and the other day, and there’s definitely going to be less this year, the next year, the prices that the bank and FSA gave us to use, are not near as good as we’ve had in the past,” he adds.
Johnson still has quite of bit of the 2024 crop in storage, hoping to capture rallies.
“I’ve still got most of my crop on the farm because I didn’t get as much sold last summer as I hoped dude, like I have in the past just because the opportunities weren’t there and now it’s kind of going down again. So hopefully there’s going to be a rally at some point.”
However, he realizes the tariff situation will be a headwind.
In the trade war of 2018 North Dakota saw the worst basis levels in history and so he wants to avoid a repeat.
Johnson says, “I know that tariffs and all that stuff is going to affect some of that for the time being but I’m optimistic that it’ll kind of all get sorted out.”
Head down I-29 south about 25 miles and Jason Nelson has the same concerns about the upcoming growing season especially with 80 percent of the Northern Plains seeing drought on the drought monitor.
He says, “I don’t know if we’re in a dry cycle, but it’s feeling that way. So we’ll see what happens in April and May.”
He plants a diverse mix of crops at his farm near Thompson, including sugar beets, edible beans, small grains and row crops and says diversification helps buffer the lower grain prices, but margins are still slim.
“Well it’s always about the dollar I guess trying to get the most out of our crop and trying to squeeze as much as we can you know if we’re on the dry side yields aren’t going to be there,” he explains.
He says most input prices are comparable to last year except fertilizer, which is helping break evens.
So while he isn’t cutting inputs, he is scrutinizing every purchase.
Nelson says, “It’s not not like anything has risen too sharp but keeping an eye on those nitrogen prices and seeing that we can do in season if we have to have to have a band -aid out there if we do get rain and if we don’t get any rain we’re pretty well set.”
And Nelson is mindful a lot of this could change if tariffs go into place so he’s cautious, yet still optimistic about the 2025 planting season.
“You got to manage the highs and the lows. So that’s the name of the game in my opinion.”
